Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 7, 2023

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Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; not much movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The over in Cincinnati was a winner in 3rd inning! 1-0 yesterday!

Now, the previous two Cincinnati games witnessed the smart money betting heavily on overs, but the script has dramatically flipped this time around. They're bucking the trend and going under 10, a move that's already caused some books to trim the total to 9.5, even as the majority still hovers at 10. When 70% of the handle veers towards the over, a decrease in the total can only signify that the smart money is backing the under.

We have seen a staggering 34 runs from both sides in their last three games, so the limelight is on Clayton Kershaw and Nick Ashcraft to pump the brakes. Stepping in to steady the Dodgers' ship is the veteran force of Kershaw. The 16-year pro is coming off a hard-earned victory over the Yankees, a game in which he yielded only two runs over seven innings.

In the opposing camp, despite their current subpar performance, there's an undercurrent of excitement with the promotion of their top prospect, Elly De La Cruz. As for Ashcraft, after an initially impressive season, he's seen an uptick in his ERA and WHIP, with the former now at a hefty 6.64. His recent outings have been a mixed bag, with three of the last four resulting in at least seven earned runs. In light of the scoring spree these offenses have been on, I find it tough to back the under, even when my model predicts a total of 9.2 runs.

Next, we turn our gaze to the Rockies game, where it's a rare sight to find the smart money siding with the under at Coors. Despite 90% of the handle on the over, the total hasn't budged from 11.5, the juice slowly gravitating towards the over, making the under a confusing pick to support. Anderson's home record is impressive this season, while Cobb's tale of home and away splits is a different narrative altogether.

Cobb is fresh off a stunning performance against the Baltimore Orioles, a game that saw him yield no runs over 7 2/3 innings, enabling him to improve his win-loss record and whittle down his ERA. His bounce back from a bruising encounter with the Milwaukee Brewers has been noteworthy, with only four homers conceded across his last 10 starts.

As for the Rockies, their run production has been lacking lately, with just eight runs across the last three games, leading to two unders. The experienced Chase Anderson stands tall on the mound for Colorado, having enjoyed an impressive season with a 1.69 ERA across his tenure with the Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays. His recent shift from relief to starting in Denver has been fruitful. In spite of two skilled pitchers at the helm, a total of 12 or more runs feels like a stretch and I am ok in supporting the under however i'd prefer to get it at 12.

To recap: LA Dodgers under 10, Colorado under 11.5

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