Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 6, 2023

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Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; not much movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: I went big on the Jays yesterday while all the signs were pointing at the Astros and did I ever regret it. They were down 6-0 after the first! The Astros were the only bet that won yesterday. The Royals started off strong but folded while the Phillies scored 8 by themselves and destroyed the under.

The spotlight today falls on the Texas Rangers, a team that's currently enjoying a hot streak. The savvy bettors caught wind of this early, placing their bets on the Rangers when they were at -128. While I may have missed that initial move, another group of sharp minds saw value at -145, driving the line up to -152 at some outlets. It seems the consensus today is heavily weighted towards the Rangers, and despite my usual hesitancy towards supporting overwhelmingly public choices, it's hard to go against them at the moment.

On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals' recent record does little to inspire confidence. With a dismal 0-4 in their last four games and 1-10 in their recent 11 encounters against the AL West, the Cardinals appear out of form. Their history on the road only accentuates their struggles, with the 'under' hitting in 7 out of their last 8 road games. Meanwhile, the Rangers' impressive 8-1 record against teams with a losing record and 5-1 against teams fielding a left-handed starter makes them a compelling choice.

Despite missing out on the initial value, I'm inclined to back the Rangers and the smart money in this matchup. The Cardinals' offense inconsistency leaves me skeptical of their ability to turn things around. Even though they attempted a comeback in Monday's late innings, they fell short. The Rangers, however, proved once again that they know how to secure a win. With Dane Dunning's solid performances since rejoining the Rangers' rotation, I'm confident in predicting a home win for Texas in this matchup.

Switching gears, the Oakland Athletics' game total debuted at 7.5 on Draftkings and 8 on BetOnline before escalating to 8.5 overnight. The 'over' has been a recurring trend when James Kaprielian is pitching for Oakland, and given his staggering ERA of over 10 on the road this season and 13 runs allowed in 11.3 innings pitched, it's easy to see why. While Mitch Keller's recent performances for the Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been his best, his prospects look promising against an A's offense that consistently underperforms against right-handed pitchers. Despite his steep DFS price tag of 10.9k, his potential output in this game should justify the cost.

The caveat to betting the 'over', however, is the necessity for the Pirates to shoulder the majority of the scoring, given the A's offense struggles. My model forecasts a total of 9.2 runs, siding with the smart money on this one.


To recap: Texas -145, Oakland over 8.5

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