Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 5, 2023

!!!PRO ALERT!!!

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Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; not much movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: On Friday the smart money was on the Mariners and the Mets over 8.5. Both plays were losses.

Today's Sharp Report throws a spotlight on four games. Setting aside the clear favorite in one, we focus on the other three – the Royals at +150, the Astros at +115, and the Phillies with under 9.

After a 59-game stretch, the Royals have proven to be a risky proposition, with a record of 18-41 leading to a -30% ROI on $100 bets, across both moneyline and run line bets. Yet, the Royals have attracted astute investment at +150, pushing the line to +143. Intriguingly, the Royals claim 80% of the handle and 65% of the tickets. Despite a home ERA above 6, the Marlins' Garrett has shown consistency, barring a singular disastrous game against the Braves. In other home starts, he’s given up only one run per game. His support comes from one of the best wRC+ teams in recent weeks. Although the Marlins are due for some regression, their patient approach at the plate should help them win this game handily. With the Royals likely to lean heavily on their bullpen after Hernandez's short stint, the Marlins' hot form should continue.

This evening in Toronto, we have a head-to-head between the Astros and the Blue Jays. Despite the Astros' strong backing, shifting the line from +115 to +105, the Blue Jays' hot streak and strong home form are hard to ignore. The Astros' Bielak has shown inconsistency on the road, while Blue Jays' Manoah has demonstrated better control in night games. With the Blue Jays on a run-scoring spree and Manoah's strong previous showing against the Astros, I lean toward the home favorites.

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, the total has slipped from 9 to 8.5 overnight, leaving no room for a 9 in the market. My model puts this game at 8.1 with a marginal EV of about 3%, which is too low for now. With the Tigers' offense struggling in Chicago and the Phillies doing well against left-handed pitchers recently, I wouldn't gamble on the under tonight. Nola's strong home performance and Wentz's high road ERA only support this conclusion.

To recap: Royals +150, Astros +105, Phillies under 8.5


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