Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 23, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: VIPs and PRO members cashed another 3 unit bomb yesterday on the over in Cincinnati. Last edition sharps were on the over in Oakland. In what looked to be an unexpected pitching duel, the bullpens messed it all up and the sharps got the over.
We are left with only some MLB today. The MLB betting model has identified 3 value plays. Houston is one of them but I hate the Yankees. Yes, VIPs were on the Rays last night... yes that did happen. The line did move 14 pts in favour of the Astros and I confirm we have sharp money on Houston. The under also dropped by half a run but there was no sharp indication at the book. This is definitely a pitching duel. I like Houston in this game. Valdez's high GB% should limit the Yankee's HR and that's how those @#()@#%([email protected]% get you. Taillon has been really impressive this season. His control has been a significant contributor to his success. His SIERA suggests a little regression but the same goes for Valdez. Houston is coming in hot beating the Mets on b2b games however generally New York is not a place the Astros have success, they are 5-11 last 16 games playing the Yankees. Last night, VIPs also had the under in Miami. I don't need to say more. 30 runs have been scored in the first 2 games. The Rockies are 11th in overall scoring BUT before last on the road, just behind the Tigers. Sharp money has been supporting the under but it flipped to the over for game 3 of this series. Garrett was garbage in his first start of the season versus the Giants 20 days ago but was also perfect vs the Astros 7 days later. Overall, he's a 5 ERA type of pitcher with K r[a[te of under 20% and issues with his control. Freeland went through a rough patch in June but he's 2-1 in June and he beat the Padres twice. He's pitched 20 innings in his last 3 starts and he gets a boost versus the Marlins who have been terrible at the LHP. My model shows little value on the over and ill stay away from this game. Good luck today
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