Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 21, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Atlanta Braves
With no NHL and NBA on Tuesday, we can assume that the sharps would be all over some baseball right? It's not really the case. The volume is very low at the book as I'm writing this and the bet limits vary between $500 to $1500. At Pinnacle sportsbook the max bet limits are currently much higher however you are capped to that max bet. At the book where my contact is, no matter how low the bet limit is you can keep on betting over and over again usually to a max of 40 to 50k. Anyway, no one is moving lines this early and it's quiet everywhere. Before we touch on the only game the book adjusted due to sharp interest, I will share with you some of the best value plays as per my model for tomorrow and you can track if the books will adjust their lines accordingly. Milwaukee at -118Chicago WhiteSox +103Toronto over 9LA Dodgers over 9.5 Oakland over 7.5
The only game that received sharp money for Tuesday is the over in Oakland. It opened at 7o -120 this afternoon and within the first 2 hours, it moved to 7.5o-120. Kaprielian is looking for his first win of the season however with an ERA of 6.31, a WHIP of 1.50 and supported by the second-worst offense in terms of runs scored, it might be a while before he wins a game. Seattle has a top 10 wRC+ however is a bottom 5 team in terms of runs scored and as much as I've been blasting them and fading them for that, I truly believe some positive regression is coming for them and this is a sweet spot for them to score many runs. Going back to Kaprielian, he's allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 games and gave up 7 HRs. Gonzales hasn't recorded a win in close to a month and lost 3 of the last 4 starts. His xERA of 4.90 is pointing towards regression from his ERA of 3.41. He doesn't strike out much but he will get a boost versus an Oakland team that is 9th in K% at 24% and 6th versus LHP. The A's have been awful last 7 days with a wRC+ of 50 and that's a drop of ~ 35pts from the last 14 days. I agree with the sharps here however I don't expect Oakland to generate much offense but Seattle can blow up and score 10 alone. Also, in case you haven't noticed above, my model also likes the over in this game. Good luck today
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