Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 15, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The sharps were wrong on the over between the Mets and the Brewers. Both pitchers found their ways and pitched better. Sharps were also wrong on the value with the Angels. You just can't bet the Angels on the wrong! The only game they got right was the Mets at -140!

It's here! The Stanley Cup final! This will be the most loaded final in terms of talent in a long time. Both teams are stacked and if you are not a hockey fan, this series will for sure make you one. The Avs have had the easiest path to the finals winning 10 of 12 games and the only team that really gave them a little challenge was the Blues. Tampa battled the Leafs in 7 games, cruised thru the president champs 4-0 and battled back from 0-2 to win 4 straight versus the Rangers. What I was impressed the most was the way Tampa adjusted after going down 0-2 and completely took over the series to a point where the Rangers sat Kakko while his line was instrumental in the first 2 games. That is what we call experience and that's something that the Avs don't have. Both teams are so loaded and it's impossible for me to even make a prediction about who the MPV will expect for Vasilevskiy. Will Kadri and Point return? Are we going to see more heroics from 3rd and 4th liners? This series will be classic and a must-watch. The value is so obvious on Tampa Bay. So obvious that it scares me. The Avs are just as fast as the Leafs but more talented. The Lighting had a hard time containing the Leafs. I believe the Avs take the series and win the cup.

In game one we have no sharp money at the book. There is close to 250k wagered, the book did adjust the line from -170 to -154 with 72% of the handle on Colorado. The line was adjusted based on other books most probably getting some sharp action on Tampa Bay. The total stayed at 6 and the over moved from -107 to -120 and back down to -110. Since Sunday, the handle on the over moved from 79% to 56% therefore clear evidence that late money is coming on the under. My lean on game one would be the Lighting. The Avs will have the exact amount of rest then Tampa had before game 1 versus the Rangers and we all know how that went down. Kuemper should be rusty also. Experience prevails in game 1.

If sharp money pops up overnight I will update the NHL info.

The MLB sharp report went 4-0 on its final update. This morning it has 4 more games and one of them is the Reds. Last night we were talking about how much I liked the under in Arizona but I just didn't trust the bullpens. Well, it almost went over because of them. Today the sharps prefer Castillo to Gallan. The line moved about 15 pts in favour of the Reds however 60% of the handle is supporting Arizona. Both pitchers are having a great season and are very solid. They can go deep into games and it is expected since once again they want to stay away from the BP's. Yesterday's game went in extra-inning and while the Dbacks used 5 relievers the Reds only used 3. My model is showing small value on the Reds and it agrees with the sharps.

Good luck today

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