Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 14, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: What a crazy game in Golden State. The sharps were all the under and they were right!! I hope you guys followed my recommendation and stayed away from the Mariners. The sharps were wrong on that one. I was expecting more runs in that game but it didn't happen.
Today we have no NBA and NHL therefore it will all be about baseball. The sharp report has 4 games up. My model agrees with the value on the under in Arizona however there is not enough value to dig into that game. Then, the sharps are on the over 8 in Mets land and my model is showing ~ 8% EV on the over. The Mets score a ton at home but 8 of their last 10 vs Brewers have gone under. Houser gave up 5 runs in 2 of his last 3 games along with 5 HRs. Bassitt game up 10 runs in his last 3 or 18 in his last 4. Both pitchers haven't been pitching well and that is a big reason why the sharps are the over.
The sharps are also on a big dog today. For whoever has the nerves, sharp money started coming in on the Angels at +175 and pushed the line down to +157. Then public money took over and pushed the line back to +175. It's been quiet since then. My model shows no value on the Angels in this game. For the Angels to have a chance here, Noah needs to pitch deep because his BP sucks! He's pitched over 7 innings only twice this year. Let's not forget the Angels home and away splits. I prefer them at home and so does Noah, he has an ERA of almost 8 on the road on 16 IPs. The Dodgers weren't impressive in SF over the weekend and will want to give enough run support for Gonsolin to get his 8th win of the season.
The last game the Sharps are on this morning is the Mets at -140. We covered the total already and spoke about the pitchers. Both pitchers are struggling but we need to give the edge to the Mets at home. They are a top 3 team in runs scored when at home but I won't dig deeper since my model is also showing no value in this game.
Good luck today
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