Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 1, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: There was no article yesterday
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it's going to usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
One game in which the MLB model and sharps agree is on the Phillies today. Square money pushed the Cardinals at -145 yesterday and that's when sharps moved in. They took the Phillies at +134 and since then the books adjusted the line to +124. The Cardinals have been smashing LHP this season and have the 4th best wRC+ and have a K% of under 20%. The Phillies offense, without Harper, smashed Anderson and the Braves yesterday by putting up 14 runs but not sure they will have the same success versus Mikolas tonight. He's been solid in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.62. When pitching at night, he's 4-1 this season with an ERA of 1.36 and a WHIP of 0.79. Falter only had 3 starts this season and the numbers are not good. He's got an ERA close to 5 and a WHIP of 1.40. His SIERA is at 3.96 therefore we can expect some positive regression however we will need a larger sample size before coming to that conclusion. Data might show us some value on the Phillies but I am not buying it. With guys like Carlson, Goldy, Arenado, Pujols and Donovan with wOBA's north of .370 versus LHP'ing with high HC% and ISO's scares me enough to stay away from this game.
Good luck today
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