Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 29, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Our last game of the week was on the Mavs and it was a sweaty one but it was a winner.

In the world of sports betting, the anticipation and analysis of live game movements create an intriguing landscape for bettors and enthusiasts alike. As we approach the winter break, the NHL scene is relatively calm, with limited action until February 6. However, the spotlight tonight is on a single game in Ottawa, which is drawing significant attention from the betting community.

The Ottawa vs. Nashville game has seen an interesting shift in betting dynamics. Despite Ottawa's lackluster recent performance and Nashville's reputation as a formidable road team, the odds have surprisingly swung in Ottawa's favor. Initially tagged at +105, Ottawa's odds have shifted to -111, indicating a stronger inclination towards them from bettors. This shift, particularly against the backdrop of Nashville's road prowess, suggests a deeper confidence in Ottawa’s potential to outperform expectations.

Over in the NBA, the scene is buzzing with an extensive 12-game slate, yet the movement in betting circles has been unusually subdued. This could be attributed to the betting community's recovery from an active NFL day. Nonetheless, there are notable movements worth highlighting. The Miami Heat, for example, saw their odds slightly improve from -3.5 to -4, with a substantial 80% of the early handle, despite an even distribution of tickets.

The total points market, especially in the game between the Lakers and Suns in Houston, is another focal point. Here, the 'Over 227.5' bet attracted sharp money, prompting bookmakers to adjust the line to 230.5. This kind of movement signifies a strong belief in a high-scoring encounter among the bettors.

In contrast, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fifth game in 7 nights, featuring GTD Mann and a questionable Conley, has the sharps leaning towards a lower-scoring affair. The total points line has been adjusted from 225.5 to 224.5, reflecting this sentiment.

Shifting focus to college basketball, the Virginia Tech and Texas games emerge as highlights in an otherwise lackluster slate. However, it's the Texas game that's particularly intriguing. The total points line here saw a downward adjustment from 129.5 to 129, with a possibility of reversing back to 130, indicating a potential buyback on the 'over.'

An unusual movement is observed in the Bethune Cookman game, where the line moved significantly from a pick'em to -2.5 for the home team. Despite a whopping 88% of the handle favoring Alcorn State, this reverse line movement (RLM) on Bethune Cookman suggests that sharp money in different markets is heavily leaning towards the home team.

In conclusion, these movements and shifts across various sports and games reflect the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of sports betting. As bettors navigate through these fluctuations, the insights gleaned from sharp money movements offer a fascinating glimpse into the strategic considerations that shape the betting landscape.

Game of the day:

Analyzing the upcoming Texas game between the Cougars and Longhorns, it becomes clear that this matchup is shaping up to be a compelling contest, especially from a sports betting perspective. Despite the sharp money leaning towards the game going under the total of 130 points, there are contrasting models with differing projections, adding an intriguing layer of complexity to the betting landscape.

The Houston Cougars, under Kelvin Sampson, have adapted seamlessly to their new power-five conference environment, boasting an impressive 18-2 record. Their recent performances, including decisive victories against formidable opponents like Texas Tech, UCF, BYU, and Kansas State, have solidified their position as a top contender. Betting-wise, they are a strong choice, with 14 of their 20 games going under the total and a 12-8 record against the spread (ATS).

On the other hand, the Texas Longhorns, led by Rodney Terry, have experienced a season of highs and lows. Despite recent wins against top teams like Baylor and Oklahoma, their performance against BYU was less than stellar. With a 6-14 ATS record and an 11-8-1 tendency towards the over, they present a contrasting betting profile compared to Houston.

Both teams have standout players. Houston’s L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead have been key contributors, while Texas relies on the talents of Max Abmas and Dillon Mitchell. However, Houston's elite defense, which has led to a majority of their games going under the total, is a critical factor to consider.

From a tactical perspective, both Houston and Texas are among the slower teams in the nation in terms of pace, and this slow pace, combined with Houston's top-tier defense, suggests a game that is more likely to be low-scoring and methodical.

Given these considerations, including the defensive prowess of Houston and the slower pace of play from both teams, the likelihood of the game staying under the total of 130 points seems plausible. The Cougars' ability to control the game's tempo and stifle opponents defensively could force Texas into late shot clock situations, further contributing to a lower-scoring affair.

Despite the offensive capabilities of both teams, their tendencies and analytics lean towards a game that is low-scoring and slow-paced.

In conclusion, considering the defensive strength of Houston, the slower game pace of both teams, and the under trend in their previous matchups, betting on the game going under the total of 130 points appears to be a prudent choice. This Big 12 clash is setting up to be a tightly contested game where defense and control will likely dictate the pace and ultimately the scoring.


RECAP: TEXAS UNDER 130

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