Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 23, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We started the week in a loss. Wake Forest couldn't put up enough points for the over to hit. Let's move on.

The NHL slate today features nine games, and sharp bettors have already made significant moves in two of these matchups. Notably, the Minnesota Wild have caught the attention of the sharps. An early bet at -145 has led to a market adjustment, with odds now sitting at -153 and some sportsbooks even listing them at -160. The Wild are commanding a staggering 90% of the early handle, indicating a strong consensus among bettors on their chances.

In another interesting development, the Vegas Golden Knights are facing a back-to-back game situation and will be hosting the New York Islanders. The Islanders, now under the passionate leadership of new coach Patrick Roy, have seen their odds shift from -135 to -146. Notably, Roy's reputation and style have added an intriguing element to this game. Despite being a 'square play' as per the sharp report, the Islanders are gaining traction in the betting markets.

Moving to the NBA, the betting lines are showing a tight race, but some significant movements have been noted. The Denver Nuggets have seen their line move from -3.5 to -4, hinting at the possibility of the Indiana Pacers being shorthanded due to injuries. The New York Knicks are another team to watch, as their line has been adjusted from -3.5 to -4.5, reflecting the majority of the handle and tickets favoring them. These movements suggest that bettors are leaning heavily towards these teams in tonight's matchups.

In college basketball, the focus is on the games in South Carolina and BYU, which are leading the ticket counter as of this morning. Kentucky has seen their line move from -3.5 to -4.5, with 60% of the handle backing them, while Houston's line has shifted from -2.5 to -3, despite only 34% of the handle on their side. This discrepancy indicates a more divided opinion among bettors regarding Houston's chances. The overall line movement in college basketball has been relatively quiet overnight, with only a handful of games moving by 1 or 1.5 points, suggesting a stable betting landscape in this area.

For bettors and sports enthusiasts, these insights provide a snapshot of the current betting landscape across the NHL, NBA, and college basketball. As always, staying informed and watching for last-minute changes in player availability and other factors can be key to making well-informed betting decisions.

Game of the day:

Our game of the day is in Indiana where the Pacers will host the Nuggets who are coming off a huge win in Boston.

The dynamics of this matchup, influenced by recent team performances and player conditions, strongly suggest the Nuggets are not only poised to win but also cover the spread.

The sharp money at the book confidently backing the Nuggets, moving the line from -3.5 to -4, signals a collective belief in their strength. This shift is partly based on the assumption that Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers' key player, might be sidelined again. The Pacers have struggled without Haliburton, going 2-4 in his absence, and their recent trade for Siakam hasn't immediately turned fortunes in their favor, as evidenced by their 0-2 record since his arrival.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are riding a wave of momentum with a two-game winning streak, including a notable victory over the Celtics in Boston. Their performance is anchored by the phenomenal play of Nikola Jokic, who has been delivering MVP-caliber performances consistently. Jokic's recent 42-point game is a testament to his dominance, and with Jamal Murray complementing him, the Nuggets' offensive prowess is dangerous.

Statistically, Denver's offense ranks well in efficiency, and their defense has been robust, ranking 7th in scoring defense and 10th in field goal defense. This balance is crucial, especially against a Pacers team that, despite ranking first in scoring offense, struggles significantly on the defensive end, ranking 29th in scoring defense and last in field goal defense.

The Pacers' potential return of Haliburton could offer a boost, but even then, they face significant challenges. Haliburton, if he plays, will have the tough task of contending with Murray, and the Pacers' overall poor rebounding will likely struggle against Jokic's prowess in the paint. Additionally, the Pacers' weak defensive metrics, particularly their inability to effectively guard the perimeter or inside, play into the Nuggets' strengths.

Moreover, historical matchups favor the Nuggets, who have consistently outperformed the Pacers in their recent encounters. Denver's ability to impose their defensive style and effectively manage the clock has been a key factor in their dominance over Indiana. This, coupled with their current form and the Pacers' defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for the Nuggets to not only win but also cover the spread comfortably.

In conclusion, considering the Nuggets' balanced attack, Jokic's exceptional form, and the Pacers' defensive struggles, especially in the absence of Haliburton, Denver is well-positioned to extend their winning run. Their tactical advantage, both offensively and defensively, coupled with the historical precedent of their matchups, make them a solid choice to win and cover the spread against the Pacers.

RECAP: Denver -4

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