Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 23, 2023
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. RECAP of yesterday's games: On our last edition Friday the plays went 0-2 and we continue to go up and down. I usually take the weekend off from this article therefore let's hope this week starts strong.
We have an interesting move in Sacramento between the Grizzlies and the Kings tonight. The line opened at +4 at Betonline yesterday afternoon, dropped to +1.5 within 30 minutes and it's now at +1 or +1.5 depending on the book. There are no major injuries to report this morning. Memphis went on a crazy 11-0 run and since then lost their last 2 and 0-3 ATS L3. The Kings won 6 straight however lost the last game while playing on a b2b. Based on my model and net ratings the Kings should be a 2 pt favorite at home and getting 4 pts triggered the smart money to also find value on that number. The Kings can surely match the Grizzlies in offense however the issue is their defense which ranks 25 in points allowed per 100 possession. The over in Detroit was smashed overnight from 230.5 to 235. The smart money is betting on the Bucks weak offense (23rd in aORTG) to put up a shit load of points on this terrible Piston defense. Both Middleton and Giannis are probable for tonight's game and if you like the over you want to make sure they both play. The over is 6-2 last 8 meetings in Detroit, however, Detroit just played 3 straight unders allowing their average of 120 to 125 pts against per game but their offense hasn't done the job in scoring. I doubt the Bucks will have issues scoring tonight but will the Pistons be able to score over 100 against this Bucks' defense?
It's a quiet day in the NHL and I don't have anything to share except that this Rangers line should move up quickly after the morning practice. Pro members were just informed of a 2 unit play in that game. To recap: Sacramento +1, Detroit over 235,
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