Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 22, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Last week, our final pick didn't pan out as expected, with the Nuggets delivering an outstanding defensive performance in Boston. We had backed the Celtics at -6, but they ended up losing outright. This week, let's aim to begin on a more positive note.

In tonight's NHL lineup, we have a six-game slate with some noteworthy line movements. Particularly striking are two games with odds exceeding -350, a range I'll be steering clear of. However, for those involved in DFS cash games, these are prime starting points for research.

Focusing on Boston, the Bruins are set to host the in-form Winnipeg Jets. Interestingly, there's a gradual shift in money towards the Jets, despite the Bruins leading in ticket count. This has resulted in the moneyline for the Jets shifting from +125 to +115.

In Arizona, despite my model indicating value on the Coyotes, the odds are trending in the opposite direction. Plagued with injuries, the Coyotes have lost the momentum they had earlier in the season. The Penguins, starting as -133 road favorites, have seen their odds increase to -145 this morning.

Shifting to the NBA, the Magic, Suns, and Celtics are all playing back-to-back nights. The lines have moved against them, albeit slightly. The Celtics, in particular, are attracting sharp money at the book, with the line fluctuating considerably. With Horford and Holiday marked as game-time decisions, but likely to play, the Celtics' line opened at -3.5, dropped to -2, and then moved back to -3.5 following sharp interest.

Additionally, there's sharp action on the over in the Cleveland game. The total, initially set at 214.5, has risen to 216, with a majority of the handle favoring the over.

In college basketball, the small slate features a couple of intriguing matchups, particularly in Kansas and North Carolina, which are drawing significant betting interest. Kansas opened at -7 and has moved to -8.5. While 92% of the handle supports Kansas, only 45% of the tickets are on them, indicating sharp money on both sides.

The North Carolina line remains as it opened, but the total has been adjusted from 154 to 156.5 overnight. Although the total's handle at the book is modest, 80% of the tickets are on the over. North Carolina is considered a square play, as per the sharp report.

Game of the day:

As we turn our attention to North Carolina for our game of the day, the spotlight is firmly on the total points. With sharp money leaning towards the over at 154.6 and the line moving to 156.5, there's a compelling argument for expecting a high-scoring affair.

My model, which typically favors the under, also aligns with this prediction, projecting a total score of 161 points. This anticipation stems from a deep analysis of both teams' performances and statistical strengths.

The University of North Carolina (UNC) boasts impressive offensive metrics. Averaging 83.4 points per game , their efficiency is not just in scoring but also in ball handling and rebounding. Shooting 45.5% from the field and 35.3% from three-point range, they are a force to reckon with. Their efficiency extends beyond scoring, they are an elite taem in creating turnovers and are top 15 in rebounding.

On the other side, Wake Forest's stats are equally impressive, especially in their three-point shooting, leading the ACC with an average of 9.5 per game. The return of Monsanto is expected to bolster this even further. With a field goal percentage of 47.7% and ranking 12th nationally at 39.3% from downtown, their offensive prowess is clear.

Historical trends between these two teams further reinforce the expectation of a high-scoring game. The over has hit in their last five encounters. While UNC might focus on limiting Wake Forest's perimeter shooting, the Demon Deacons have proven adept at finding scoring opportunities inside, especially through Andrew Carr and Efton Reid III.

Moreover, UNC's pace, ranked 53rd fastest in the nation, combined with their ability to dominate the boards and create second-chance points, underscores their potential for high scoring. This, along with Wake Forest's sharpshooting and efficient scoring, sets the stage for a game where points are likely to come in abundance.

Given these factors, the current line of 153 seemed conservative. As the game approaches, it's anticipated that savvy bettors will recognize this and drive the live even higher then 156.5. Therefore, seizing the value with the over at this point seems like a prudent move for those looking to capitalize on these insights.

In summary, tonight's showdown in North Carolina is not just a clash of two titans but a potential showcase of offensive firepower. With both teams demonstrating significant scoring ability and historical trends favoring high totals, betting on the over seems a well-founded strategy.

RECAP: Wake Forest over 156.5

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