Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 17, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Understanding yesterday's betting scenario is crucial, especially in light of my reservations about the bet – reservations that were indeed validated by the outcome. The question arises: why bother analyzing and discussing a game I'm not in favor of betting on? The answer lies in the educational value of the process. By sharing my handicapping approach, I aim to offer insights and learning opportunities. It's important to recognize that even the sharpest bettors aren't infallible; they don't always get it right. This acknowledgment is a key part of developing a more nuanced and informed approach to sports betting.

In the NHL, the high favorite lines in all three games have diminished their appeal for betting. Despite the model showing some value for Chicago, they are on b2b games and injury woes make them a less enticing option. Interestingly, no significant line movement has occurred yet for Chicago, but expectations are for it to drift towards the -300 mark by puck drop.

The New Jersey Devils started at -230 against their opponents but have since moved down to -185. This aligns closely with my model's valuation of -178, indicating agreement with the market's movement. I anticipate a surge of late money on the Devils, potentially driving the odds back in their favor as the game approaches.

Switching to the NBA, there's been a notable silence from the smart money, with the only significant activity being on the Brooklyn Nets. The line for the Nets has shifted modestly from -5.5 to -6, which is somewhat surprising given the size of the 10-game slate.

In college basketball, Kentucky's line movement is particularly striking, shifting from -5.5 to as high as -7 in some places. With 80% of the handle backing Kentucky, the interest is clear. However, what's more intriguing is the movement on the total. Despite 90% of the handle on the under, Betonline adjusted the total from 154.5 down to 153, indicating sharp confidence in a lower-scoring game.

Another major CBB game features Connecticut hosting Creighton. Here, 60% of the handle is on Creighton, but the line moved from -5.5 for UCONN to -6.5, suggesting a lean towards the home team.

In the Sharp Report marked as a square play, LSU is garnering overwhelming support against Mississippi, with the line moving from -1.5 to -4 and then adjusting to -3. This shift suggests a significant backing for LSU and the book will be cheering for Mississippi.

Lastly, Arkansas State, Bradley, and UAB have all seen substantial line swings in their favor, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 points. This movement could indicate a combination of market reactions and sharp betting influencing the odds.

Game of the day:

Tonight's game between the Brooklyn Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers is shaping up to be a unique encounter, especially with the under 224.5 bet gaining traction. This prediction aligns with a 'Whale' bettor, known for a hot streak, and my model, which pins the game close to this total. Interestingly, 62% of the handle is leaning towards the under, indicating a potential drop in the line as the game approaches.

Brooklyn, currently struggling on the road and sitting 10th in the Eastern Conference, faces a Portland team that's also been in a slump, losing four straight games and holding a poor home record. Both teams have had their share of recent offensive struggles, with the Nets scoring just 102 and 95 points in their last two games and the Blazers failing to break 100 in three of their last four.

Despite the Nets' shooting woes, they have shown strong defensive play lately, holding opponents to lower shooting percentages. Players like Mikal Bridges and Cam Thomas have been key contributors, but overall shooting efficiency has been lacking. The Nets excel in certain defensive aspects but are middling in offensive and defensive ratings.

Portland's recent loss to the Suns highlighted their defensive shortcomings, allowing high shooting percentages. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons have been bright spots offensively, but the team's overall performance has been inconsistent. They rank poorly in several key offensive and defensive metrics, underscoring their struggles this season.

In the last meeting between these two teams, the game was a high-scoring affair, but current form suggests a different narrative. Both teams have been underperforming offensively, with key players either in slumps or sidelined. The Nets' improved defense and the Trail Blazers' offensive inconsistencies, coupled with a slower game pace from both teams, set the stage for a game that's likely to stay under the 224.5 total.

Given these factors, tonight's matchup seems poised for a lower-scoring outcome. Brooklyn's search for offensive rhythm against Portland's porous defense, combined with their own defensive uptick, suggests a game controlled by Brooklyn but not necessarily a high-scoring one. With the Trail Blazers also grappling with their own offensive issues, the under 224.5 bet appears to be a well-founded prediction for this late-night clash.

RECAP: Brooklyn under 224.5

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