Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 15 2022 SATURDAY NFL PLAYOFFS

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

CRAZY day yesterday. Arizona almost pulled the upset in Colorado. Sharps hit the Ducks early however another set of sharps ended up being on the Wild and pushed the line back up. The Ducks had no chance. Sharps were right on the under in Philadelphia and the Bulls got completely smashed again. There was some late buyback on the Warriors

NFL PLAYOFFS

We have 2 great games today. We will look at how the line and total behaved since it opened and we will compare it to my model's projections.

Las Vegas vs Cincinnati

This morning's sharp report is showing that a set of sharps hit the Raiders at +6. This made the line interesting for Bengals supporters and the book is already seeing some money coming back on the Bengals at -5.5. The Bengals opened a 6 pts favourite on January 10th. Early interest was immediately on them which pushed the line at -6.5. Since then money is coming in on the Raiders and the Bengals dropped back to -6 and finally to -5.5 on January 11th. The line hasn't moved since then. The tickets on this game are pretty even while the handle is slightly in Cincinnati's favour. My model has the Bengal's fav by 5.2 pts therefore there is no value on either team. The total has been steady and there is no indication of sharp interest. My projection on the total is 49. I think the Raiders keep this game close and I would recommend taking the points. The Raiders have looked better since Jacobs found his legs and will be a huge factor vs the Bengals defense. Crosby should have a field day getting to Borrow.

New England vs Buffalo

MY BILLS!!!! I admit I'm a little nervous! BetRivers has a crazy moneyline booster play on the Bills. Find me in discord and I'll give you all the goods! We have ZERO sharps targeting this game at the book. The Bills opened at -4 on the 10th of December. On that day it moved between -4 and -4.5. On the 13th, Betonline posted a -3.5 for about 2 hours however it jumped back to -4 and then -4.5. Some books are posting the Bills at -5. My model has the Bill 4 pt favourites. As for the total, I have it set at 44 therefore no value. It moved between 43.5 and 44.5. There is no sharp interest either on the total. The Bills own the tickets and handle at ~ 55% on both sides. The Bills are peaking going into this game while the Pats have been moving in the opposite direction however this Belichick team is dangerous and it's the playoffs and I expect a close game. I expect a low-scoring game where the Pats will run the shit out of the Bills. I also expect the Pats to generate a couple of turnovers in what is expected to be a cold one in Buffalo. I would take the points and play the under.

Good luck today

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