Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 8, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: I sided with the Sharps yesterday and agreed with taking the points in the Pelicans game. We were both wrong and it was a bloodbath. On the next pick.

In the NHL, a compact three-game slate has seen noteworthy odds movements at the bookmakers. The Florida Panthers, hitting their stride recently, have seen a surge in betting support. Their odds have notably shifted from -144 to -160, reflecting bettors' growing confidence in their form.

Over in Columbus, the total points opened at 6 and have since risen to 6.5. This adjustment is interesting, given that both teams' defenses have been allowing over three goals per game in their last ten. However, it's worth noting that their offenses haven't been particularly explosive lately.

The Edmonton Oilers are up against the Minnesota Wild, who are coming off a game last night in Vancouver. The back-to-back road game scenario for the Wild is reflected in the odds movement, with the Oilers moving from -170 to -185. This change underscores the challenge facing the Wild and bettors' faith in the Oilers to capitalize on the situation.

NBA: A Busy Night with Minimal Movement

The NBA presents a jam-packed slate, although the overall movement has been minimal. The exception is in Phoenix, where player absences, including Allen, Bael, Durant, and Lee, have dramatically impacted the line. Originally at -4.5, the line swung to +2, largely due to Kevin Durant's absence, underlining his significance on the court.

In Philadelphia, the 76ers have seen their line move from -6.5 to -8, and there's an expectation that this line might climb further as the day progresses.

Totals Taking the Spotlight

Interestingly, total points have seen more fluctuations than the lines in several games. In Charlotte, the total dropped from 227 to 223, despite 70% of tickets being on the under. However, the betting handle on this game remains relatively small, suggesting less confidence among bettors.

Orlando's game presents a curious case. Despite the majority of money being on the under, the total has actually increased from 227.5 to 230. This divergence between the betting trend and the line movement is something bettors should keep an eye on.

Philadelphia is also witnessing a reverse line movement in the total points. With a whopping 90% of the handle on the over, the total surprisingly dropped from 244.5 to 241, indicating potential insights from sharp bettors.

Lastly, in Brooklyn, the total is tracking the money flow, moving up from 237.5 to 241. This adjustment suggests that bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair in this matchup.

Game of the Day: Nuggets in the Spotlight

Today's game of the day features the Denver Nuggets, a team that's also highlighted in the mega sharp section of the sharp report, indicating strong consensus from sharp bettors. Despite already placing a bet on the Nuggets at -8.5, there's a case to be made for both sides in this intriguing matchup.

The Case for the Houston Rockets

Despite the Nuggets being favorites, the Houston Rockets have shown they can be competitive against them, with a 2-1 record this season. In their one loss, the Rockets were defeated by ten points. Denver's offense has been performing at a moderate level lately, and they face the challenge of going up against one of the league's top defenses. This could mean Houston will keep the game tight and potentially cover the spread.

Why the Nuggets are a Strong Pick

Several compelling trends favor the Nuggets. Firstly, the Rockets have lost every road game this season, while the Nuggets have secured every home game. This pattern alone strongly leans towards a Nuggets victory. Delving deeper, the Rockets have struggled to cover the spread as road underdogs in recent games. Their young team has found it challenging to maintain strong performances away from home.

Playing in Denver adds another layer of difficulty for visiting teams. The Mile High City's elevation can impact players' stamina, often leading to subpar performances from the opposition. The Nuggets, eager to bounce back from recent losses and maintain their high standing, are likely to use their home advantage and size effectively, especially against the Rockets' defense.

Center Nikola Jokic's matchup against Alperen Sengun is particularly noteworthy. Sengun has had a promising start this season, but slowing down a player of Jokic's caliber is a tall order. The Nuggets' home strength and motivation to rebound from their recent defeats make them a compelling pick for tonight's game.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendation

In summary, while the Rockets could potentially cover the spread, the stronger case lies with the Nuggets. Their undefeated home record, combined with the Rockets' road struggles and the significant home-court advantage in Denver, positions the Nuggets favorably for this matchup. For bettors, backing the Nuggets, especially coming off two losses and playing at home, seems to be the more promising option.

RECAP: Denver -8.5

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