Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 5, 2023
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.
The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.
To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.
Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.RECAP of yesterday's games: We start the week with a win with the Pacers winning straight up. I didn't agree with the sharps but they were right!
The NBA slate may be limited with only two games, but the action is intense. Sharp bettors have shown significant interest in the Lakers game, specifically on the total score. The total opened at 224.5, but sharps were quick to bet the under when it rose to 227.5. Despite this, the total has edged up to 228, intriguingly against the sharp action, with a whopping 80% of the handle currently on the over. This divergence between sharp bets and the majority sentiment presents an interesting scenario for bettors to watch.
NHL: Betting Trends and Market Movements
In the NHL, the New Jersey Devils are receiving heavy public betting, but the bookmakers are in need of a Vancouver Canucks win. The Canucks, initially at -120, have seen their odds adjust to -106, reflecting the betting patterns.
Similarly, the Buffalo Sabres have not garnered the expected level of trust from bettors. Despite opening at -120 in their home game, the line has dropped to -106, with considerable interest swinging towards the Detroit Red Wings.
College Basketball: Sharps, Squares, and Line Movements
The college basketball scene is bustling with several key games tonight. The most bet game involves Florida Atlantic and Illinois. Playing on a neutral site, Florida Atlantic opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line has slightly shifted in favor of Illinois, now at +2. Interestingly, while the tickets are evenly split, Florida Atlantic holds 70% of the total tickets.
Michigan State's line has seen notable movement, opening at -4.5 and climbing to -5.5. This movement is driven by consistent betting on Michigan State since the opening.
UCONN's game showcases a similar pattern, with both the tickets and handle heavily favoring UCONN. This has led to the line moving from -3 to -5.5, even touching -6 at Betonline at one point.
Lastly, in the Michigan game, the significant line movements happened yesterday, with the Wolverines moving from -4.5 to -7. Today, the bookmakers have somewhat balanced the handle, with 55% now on Michigan, compared to 89% the day before.
Villanova vs. Kansas State Showdown
Setting the Scene
In a highly anticipated Big East-Big 12 Battle, the Villanova Wildcats are set to clash with the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas. The atmosphere at Bramlage Coliseum promises to be electric, especially with Kansas State riding the momentum of an impressive previous season under Jerome Tang. This matchup isn't just a regular non-conference game; it's a test of mettle for both teams, each looking to assert dominance early in the season.
The Kansas State Edge
Kansas State, buoyed by their impressive home record last season, enters this game with a strong chance of upsetting Villanova. Their performance has been relatively stable against lesser-known teams, with only two losses to their name this season. Last year's near-perfect home record is a significant factor to consider, as home-court advantage in college basketball cannot be understated. Their dominance at Bramlage Coliseum is expected to continue, making them a potential bet in this matchup.
However, it's worth noting that Kansas State has had its share of struggles, particularly against high-caliber teams. Their losses to USC and Miami indicate some vulnerability when facing top-tier competition. Furthermore, their recent games, including nail-biting wins in overtime against Oral Roberts and North Alabama, suggest that they might not be as infallible as their home record implies.
The Villanova Argument
On the other hand, Villanova's season has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. After a disappointing loss to Penn, they bounced back to win the Battle for Atlantis Tournament, defeating teams like Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. This victory not only reinstated them in the AP Top 25 rankings but also demonstrated their capability to excel against top tier opponents. However, subsequent losses to Saint Joseph’s and Drexel highlight their inconsistency.
Villanova shines brightest when facing top competition. With significant wins over Maryland, Texas Tech, UNC, and Memphis, they have proven their ability to elevate their game when it matters most. Their offense, led by Dixon and Moore, is the highest-ranked unit in this matchup, offering a potent inside-out balance that allows them to score effectively from various positions on the court.
Betting Perspective and Recommendation
From a betting standpoint, this game is a classic scenario of an inconsistent yet high-potential team (Villanova) against a solid home team (Kansas State) with some vulnerability against stronger opponents. The key betting terms to consider here are 'home court advantage' for Kansas State and 'performance against top competition' for Villanova.
Given the mixed performances of both teams, the smart bet might be on Villanova, especially considering their proven track record against stronger teams. Their ability to step up in big games could be the deciding factor in this matchup. However, bettors should proceed with caution given Villanova's unpredictability this season.
In summary, while Kansas State holds a solid home court advantage, Villanova's knack for rising to the occasion against top-tier teams makes them a slightly more appealing pick. Expect a closely contested game, with Villanova potentially edging out as the victor in this high-stakes battle.
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