Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 4, 2023
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.
The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.
To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.
Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.RECAP of yesterday's games: In our last pick of the week last week we had South Carolina and it was an easy cover. Let's start another week on a strong note.
In the world of sports, today presents a relatively calm atmosphere with small slates across all major sports, including college basketball. Here's a breakdown of what's happening in each sport: NHL: Focus on the Flyers With six games on the NHL docket, there haven't been any significant movements in the lines since yesterday and overnight. However, sharp bettors are showing interest in the Philadelphia Flyers again, though this hasn't yet resulted in a notable line shift. For more detailed analysis, keep an eye out for the upcoming NHL model article. NBA: Pacers and the Under Attract Smart Money The NBA schedule is light, featuring just two games. The focus of smart money is on the Indiana Pacers and the under. While the line hasn't seen much movement, the total has edged up from 239.5 to 241.5, with sharps hitting the under at the higher number. Monday Night Football: Jaguars as 10-Point Favorites In the Monday night football clash, the Jacksonville Jaguars are now 10-point favorites at home. Remarkably, this game opened at -1 at the start of the season, reflecting the drastic changes in team dynamics since then. Initially set at 6.5 points in favor of the Jaguars on November 21st, the line has been steadily pushed up to -10. This movement has adjusted the betting handle from 89% on the Jaguars to 53%, indicating that bookmakers have achieved the balance they were seeking. As for the total, it fluctuated from 41 to 38 and then back up to 40, but it's unlikely to see further significant changes. College Basketball: Sharp Movements In college basketball, there are a couple of interesting line movements to note. San Jose State, initially a 1-point favorite on the road, shifted to +1.5 in the afternoon and settled at +3 overnight. Despite being a popular pick among the public, the market is leaning towards the opposite side. Betonline opened with Alabama at -22.5, but the line experienced a significant jump to -25, driven by considerable interest. While Alabama commands 90% of the handle, the volume of money isn't substantial. However, if the current trend continues without significant bets on Arkansas State, we might see this line nudging further up.
Our game of the day will be in the NBA where the Celtics and Pacers will meet again. The sharps jumped on the Pacers at +5 however I don't agree with it.
The last time these two teams clashed a little over a month ago in Boston, the Celtics dealt a significant blow to the Pacers, cruising to a 155-104 victory. This past encounter sets a backdrop for tonight's game, as the Celtics look to extend their winning streak, both straight up and against the spread, against Indiana.
Recent Trends and Team Forms
The Celtics are riding a wave of momentum, having secured a win against Philadelphia on December 1st. Their performance lately has been nothing short of impressive, marking them as one of the hottest teams in the league, despite being shorthanded due to Kristaps Porzingis's inactivity. On the other side, the Pacers have been inconsistent, posting a 4-5 record after a strong 6-3 start. They have also struggled at home, losing three of their last four games on their court.
Offensive Dynamics and Defensive Challenges
Indiana, while showing flashes of brilliance as evidenced by their 144-point game against Miami, remains vulnerable, especially against teams with potent offenses like Boston. The Celtics' offensive prowess is well-acknowledged, and they are likely to exploit the Pacers’ defensive weaknesses.
Injury Updates and Potential Impact
Injury updates add another layer of intrigue to the matchup. The Celtics will miss Porzingis, a key player, but have shown resilience even in his absence. The Pacers have concerns over Tyrese Haliburton and Obi Toppin, with both players listed as questionable. Their absence could be a significant factor, given that the Pacers barely managed to overcome a shorthanded Miami Heat without Haliburton.
Betting Perspective and Recommendation
From a betting standpoint, the Celtics come into this game as the obvious better team, boasting better form despite their injury setbacks. The Pacers, while competent, may find it challenging to hold off the surging Celtics, particularly if they are missing their star player, Haliburton.
Betting Recommendation: Given the current dynamics, the smart bet would be on the Celtics to continue their strong performance and I don't agree with the sharp money liking the Pacers. They have shown the ability to overpower teams like the Pacers, who have been inconsistent and possibly handicapped by key player absences. The Celtics' offensive strength and recent form make them a solid pick to win and cover the spread in this matchup. Sharp bettors are leaning towards the under in this game. The crucial aspect is the Pacers' ability to decelerate the game's tempo. Currently, the Celtics rank 24th in pace, in contrast to the Pacers, who stand 5th in the league in terms of game speed.
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