Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 14, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: I didn't agree with the sharps but they were right about Rice. They comfortably covered the -13 by winning by 23 points.

In the NBA landscape, we're seeing some intriguing developments. Notably, Minnesota's visit to Dallas is capturing attention. With Tim Hardaway's participation uncertain and other roster shifts, the betting line has notably shifted from Dallas being a 2-point favorite to just 1. Interestingly, my model positions Minnesota as a slight 1-point favorite on the road, suggesting potential value for bettors.

The Heat's Back-to-Back Challenge

The Miami Heat's performance is under the microscope, especially given their back-to-back (b2b) game scenario. History shows that teams playing on consecutive nights often see the line move against them. True to form, the Heat opened at -5 but have seen this shrink to -3.5 at BOL. This movement aligns with general betting trends for teams in their situation.

OKC's Rising Prospects

Another team to watch is Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC). Following a disappointing result from Sacramento two nights ago—a game that still lingers in my memory—OKC opened as a +3.5 underdog. However, the line has since moved in their favor, now standing at -1.5. My model places this game as a close call, essentially a pick'em, indicating a tight contest.

Trail Blazers' Favorable Opening

The Utah Jazz, fresh off a surprising victory over the New York Knicks, don't seem to have swayed market sentiments significantly. As they head to Portland, the Trail Blazers have been cautiously opened by bookmakers at -2.5. Following incoming wagers, this has been adjusted to -3.5, reflecting confidence in Portland.

College Basketball: A Quieter Day

Spotlight on East Carolina vs. Florida

In college basketball, the most attention is on the East Carolina-Florida matchup at a neutral site. With East Carolina at +15.5, they've become an early liability for the book, drawing significant betting interest. Despite 84% of the handle favoring East Carolina, Florida still holds 55% of the tickets from nearly 1000 wagers. My analysis aligns with the public sentiment, suggesting that Florida's current line is somewhat overstated, with a more accurate spread being closer to -10 on a neutral court.

Furman-Tulane Dynamics

In the Furman vs. Tulane game, we're observing a shift in the betting landscape. While Furman initially attracted over 70% of the tickets, this trend is expected to decline as the day progresses. The line has moved from Tulane being a 6-point favorite to now 7 points, indicating that more informed, 'smart' money is leaning towards Tulane, despite the popular support for Furman.

NHL: Subtle Movements

In the NHL, things are relatively subdued for now. The Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Flyers, and Minnesota Wild are garnering some interest, but odds movements have been minimal. However, these are games to keep an eye on, as there might be more significant shifts in the betting lines in the hours leading up to the games.

In today's highlighted NBA matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers, the betting world is buzzing with a particular focus: the under on a 226.5 total. My betting model, aligning with the insights of experienced sharps, indicates a strong lean towards the under. This consensus is not just a casual observation but is backed by a solid 5% edge identified by the model.

Movement in the Market

The market has responded to this sentiment, with the total already dipping to 225.5 at Pinnacle (Pinny). This movement, coupled with the current bet limits hovering around $3,000, suggests a cautious but noticeable shift in expectations. Given these dynamics, I'm inclined to also play the under for Thursday night's game.

Analyzing Team Performances

A deeper dive into team statistics provides further support for this under bet. Both the Celtics and the Cavs have not been particularly explosive from the three-point line, with expectations set low for Cleveland, ranked just 21st in offensive efficiency.

Defensive Prowess and Tempo

Defensively, both teams have been solid this season. Boston stands fourth in defensive efficiency, while Cleveland follows closely in seventh place. This defensive strength is a crucial factor in expecting a lower-scoring game.

Moreover, both the Celtics and the Cavaliers feature among the slower-paced teams in the league. This aspect of their gameplay further bolsters the prediction for a game with fewer scoring opportunities and a generally slower tempo.

Strategy Moving Forward

Given these factors, the under bet seems even more appealing. The combination of lower three-point shooting percentages, strong defensive records, and a slower pace of play all converge to make a compelling case for expecting a total score under the 226.5 mark.

Conclusion

In summary, for bettors looking at the Celtics-Cavs game, the under 226.5 presents a promising opportunity, underpinned by a confluence of statistical trends and sharp insights. As always, it's important to bet responsibly and consider these insights as part of a broader betting strategy.

RECAP: Celtics under 225.5

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