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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 1, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Sorry for skipping this article yesterday. I had an emergency but all is good.

In today's NHL slate, there's a noteworthy movement in the odds for the Ottawa vs. Columbus game. Initially, Betonline opened with Ottawa as a -127 favorite, a line that quickly attracted attention and multiple bets. This influx of wagers led to a significant adjustment, pushing the odds to -150, and it didn't stop there. As of now, some markets have Ottawa at -165, and there's a palpable sense that these odds could climb even higher.

NBA Line Movements: Impact of Player Absences

Over in the NBA, player availability is making waves in the betting world. With Luka Doncic out and Tim Hardaway Jr. questionable, we've seen a dramatic shift in the line for the Memphis Grizzlies game. Originally set at +9.5, it's now at +6, reflecting the impact of these player changes.

Total points bets are also feeling the ripple effect of these roster uncertainties. The Dallas game, for instance, saw its opening total of 233 drop sharply to 226, a move tied directly to Doncic's absence and Hardaway's potential non-participation. Meanwhile, in New Orleans, the opposite trend is observed. The smart money is betting on a higher-scoring game than initially anticipated, pushing the total from 234.5 up to 237.5 this afternoon.

College Basketball: Spotlight on UConn vs. Kansas

In college basketball, the UConn vs. Kansas game is capturing the most bets tonight. With Kansas holding about 75% of the handle, the line has moved from -1.5 to -3, indicating strong interest in their favor.

Another game to watch is Liberty's, which has seen a fascinating shift since opening at +7. The line consistently moved in Liberty's favor throughout the morning, finally settling at +4 around lunchtime, highlighting a significant betting interest in their performance.

College Football: Sharp Insights

In college football, sharp bettors, as per the Sharp report, are leaning towards the under in the Washington game and the over in the Liberty game. These positions have influenced the total points line movements accordingly, showcasing the impact of informed betting on market dynamics.

Game of the day:

In today's college basketball landscape, the spotlight shines on a compelling matchup between George Washington and South Carolina. With expert bettors at the book favoring South Carolina at -8.5, we're observing a gradual shift in the line to -9, indicating a growing confidence in the Gamecocks.

George Washington's Resilience

George Washington recently bounced back impressively from their season's first loss, securing a victory over Delaware at the Baha Mar Hoops Nassau Championship. This win elevated the Revolutionaries to a 6-1 record, showcasing their potential to take on a Power Five team like South Carolina. In their game against Delaware, George Washington demonstrated remarkable resilience, overcoming a significant first-half deficit to clinch the win. James Bishop IV was a standout, contributing a dominant 28 points.

Statistically, George Washington stands out in scoring offense, averaging 84.7 points per game, placing them 32nd nationwide. Despite their defensive challenges, allowing an average of 73.4 points per game, their offensive firepower, led by Bishop IV, Garrett Johnson, and Maximus Edwards, keeps them competitive.

South Carolina's Unbeaten Streak

South Carolina remains undefeated, with a notable recent victory over Notre Dame. Their win against the Irish extended their record to 6-0, showcasing their solid defense and efficient scoring. Meechie Johnson emerged as a star player, scoring a career-high 29 points in their last game.

The Gamecocks average 74.7 points per game, with a strong defensive standing that limits opponents to 63.8 points. Their balanced attack, featuring Meechie Johnson, B.J. Mack, and Myles Stute, makes them a formidable opponent.

Analyzing the Matchup

Linemakers and analysts are favoring South Carolina to maintain their undefeated streak. George Washington's reliance on three-point shooting and a tendency for turnovers could be their Achilles' heel against South Carolina's defensive prowess. Furthermore, South Carolina's efficient scoring from both inside and outside the arc could challenge George Washington, especially given the Revolutionaries' struggles in offensive rebounding.

However, the betting line for South Carolina is somewhat steep, and George Washington might get late interest from bettors. It might be wise to wait and see if the line becomes more favorable closer to game time.

Betting Perspective

From a betting angle, while South Carolina appears to be the safer bet, the current line may not offer the best value. Patience could be key here, with potential line movements making George Washington an attractive underdog pick for those seeking value.

RECAP: South Carolina -8.5

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