Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 5, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Unfortunately the game in Philadelphia got rained out and the bet was avoided. The over would have been easy cash.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
For Friday, it's been very quiet and the only position the sharps are on this early is on the Braves at +114. It's Walker versus Anderson. Anderson got destroyed by the Angels and he answered back with a great game in Arizona. He's been better on the road however still sports a high ERA of 4.42. Walker gave up 3 HRs in his last 2 games and before that he'd given up 2 HRs in his last 8. Nonetheless, he's been solid at home with an ERA of under 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.02. My MLB betting model finds no value in this game therefore we will have to regroup in the morning and see if we have other options.
Below is the MLB betting model for Friday, August 5th and highlighted in green are some value plays that I like:
I will update this article in the morning.
UPDATE: On the 1 pm Sharp Report update we find the following sharp plays:ATLANTA +113 WHITE SOX -172 MILWAUKEE -203 WASHINGTON +172 ARIZONA UNDER 8.5 -111The Braves also find themselves in the book liability section therefore we have the sharps and the book cheering for the Braves. The Mets are a big square play tonight and you can find them in the square section of the Sharp Report. The line moved from -115 to -134 for the Mets. This will be the game ill be following the most tonight since I'm very interested to see the outcome. The MLB betting model shows little value on the Braves today.
The White Sox are overpriced on the road and the model doesn't agree with sharps. I have a bet on the Rangers tonight.
Milwaukee has looked terrible in Pittsburgh in their last series but sharps pushed the Brewers from -191 to -223 however the model is showing a negative EV on the Brewers.
The Nationals show a really small value and the game is now correctly priced.
And the last game, Arizona under 8.5 is another game that the model doesn't agree with since it has a projected total of 9.21 and +6.5% EV on the over.
Good luck today
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