Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 4, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Pending LA Dodgers over 7.5
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
We have some football on Thursday. What lines up to be a boring game, I'm sure many will tune in and watch since we all missed the NFL. We should see the backups play the whole game and it's still not clear if any of the stars will play. One thing is for sure, Lawrence and Etienne are not playing. The line movement at Circa sportsbook was very interesting. The Raiders opened a 1.5 favourite on July 23rd and by August second they were a 1.5 underdog. Some massive buyback happened the same day and pushed the line back up to -3 for the Raiders and it finally settled at -2 this evening. 70% of the handle and 66% of the tickets are on the Raiders. The total dropped from 33.5 to 30.5 and we are definitely getting ready for a boring game but ill take it!!
In the MLB we have 2 games that the sharps took an early interest.
WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 -119
The model really supports the over in Philadelphia with a projected total of close to 10 runs while it absolutely doesn't support the A's.
Espino will face the 11th-best OPS team in the league versus RHP and the Phillies are due for some better numbers with a BABIP of .287. The Phillies score on average 5.05 runs per game at home versus righties and the over is 12-4 in their last 16 meetings. Espino did not have a great month of July and in 21 IP he has an ERA of close to 6. Hitters have a BA of .322, OBP 2.98, and SLG of .622. His wOBA is over .400. Noah has his first start with his new team and the timing is great for him since he will be playing at home. He's been terrible on the road this year with his ERA of 5.17 versus 2.96 at home. He will face a very weak Nationals lineup which scored the 3rd fewest runs in the last 14 days but somehow beat the Mets and Degrom. The Phillies bats will have to do the most of the damage in this game but I can see the Nationals squeeze in a couple of runs. This total will for sure move to 9 tonight or overnight.
Good luck today
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