Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 3, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: It was a weird day from the sharps. Nothing really matched with the MLB betting model and we have no games to review.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
For Wednesday, it's been very quiet. Sharps hit the Yankees early however we saw another set of sharps come in on Seattle. The only 2 games on the sharp report for tomorrow are the LA Dodgers over 7.5 and Detroit over 8.5.
Both totals haven't moved and the model disagrees with the over in the Detroit game. The MLB betting model has a projected total of 7.37 and favours the under.
As for the LA Dodgers over 7.5, the model fully agrees and has a projected total of 8.4 runs and LA's team total is set at 5.34. The Dodgers have been smashing righties in their last 5 and 10 games. On a short sample size, the Dodgers are hitting .317 and averaging close to 9 runs per game in their last 5 versus righties. The trend is just as strong in their last 10 games, hitting them at .275 and averaging 6 runs per game. The Giants have had success versus lefties averaging just over 5 runs per game in their last 5 games. At home, the Giants have an R/9 of 6.16 versus lefties. I'm not concerned about the Dodgers offense however the Giants... meh... Urias last game was against the Giants and he gave up 0 ER and barely 2 hits. He gave up 5 runs to the Cubs on July 10th but he still managed to keep an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 0.65 in his last 3 starts. His ERA is about 0.50 lower on the road than at home. The Dodgers have the best OPS and wRC+ versus RHP and it shouldn't be pretty for Cobb tomorrow. For this over to hit we will need to Giants to put up 2 runs and I believe the Dodgers can do the rest of the over.
Good luck today
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