Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 19, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: The sharps and the model were wrong on the over in San Francisco. I wrote up about why I didn't like it. Gallen was unreal once again, they owned the Giants with 12 K's.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
The sharps and model are once again supporting an over on Friday. This time it's in Tampa where Singer and McClanahan will faceoff with a total of 6.5. Once again we have 2 studs on the mount. We don't need to make a case on McClanahan, we know how great he's been. As for Singer, he allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 6. The Rays have the 7th worst OPS versus RHP while Royals are a little better than the average versus LHP. The under is 7-0 in Singers' last 7 starts overall and he should keep the Rays under 3 runs and McClanahan will face a team that put up 2 runs in their last 27 innings.
The market makers opened this total at 6.5 -110 and it hasn't moved. 55% of the handle is on the under
Once again, I support the under and I don't agree with the sharps and model.
Good luck today
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