Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 16, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Sharps and the MLB betting model were right about the Mariners yesterday. But it wasn't an easy one. The Mariners needed a meltdown from Loup in the top of the 9th to secure a 6-2 win.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
The sharps and model are aligned with the under between the Padres and Marlins. Oddly enough, this total moved from 7 to 7.5, and the 7.5 was smashed by the sharp money. I support the under throughout this whole series. The Marlins have done #@# all on offense in the last couple of weeks and the only chance they have of winning is when Alcantara is pitching. They are terrible versus LHP, they have the worst OPS, ISO, wRC+ and I can go on and on. In just 5 starts Cabrera has been great with an ERA of 2.05 and a WHIP of 1.03. His xERA and BABIP show that he might regress but if he keeps his GB% over 50% that regression might just have to wait for a little.
Good luck today
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