Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 15, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: No games to review for Sunday
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
Sharps and the betting model have been off for the last 5-6 days. They were 15-8 during that span and went 1-6 Saturday and 2-4 Sunday. Been a rough 2 days for them. The betting model has been a little more consistent and still positive in August.
Here are the early projections from the MLB model:
Many underdogs are showing value (DET-CIN-MIL) however at this stage of the season many teams start giving up, therefore, it's important at looking at shorter-term trends and results to get a better feel of a team. Sharps jumped on 3 games for Monday:
CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 -123LA ANGELS UNDER 6.5 -105SEATTLE +126
The MLB model projection has the Reds and Phillies at 9.585 runs and even if most of the books are still posting 9.5 this total will drop to 9 by game time. Anyway, there is not much value in this total.
As for the under in Anaheim, I disagree with the model's projection of 7.515 runs (+13.35% EV) Just looking at whos pitching tomorrow you already want to bet the under. Also, both teams haven't been impressive versus RHP in their last 5 games. Seattle is hitting .217 and Anaheim .202. The Angels have been on a little run going 7-3 last 10 games and their starters have an ERA of 1.29 in their last 5 games.
Sharps are also on Seattle and the books adjusted quickly. My model shows the Mariners have a 50% chance of winning however market makers opened them at +135 which translates to approximately 42.5% win probability. Sharp money came in fast on the Mariners and pushed the line down to +125. With over 90% of the handle on the Mariners, the book finally adjusted the line to +105 around 8 pm on Sunday.
I would have supported the Mariners at +135 and the model liked them a lot. At +105 we lost all the value and I don't have much interest unless the Angel's rollout a stupid lineup.
Good luck today
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