Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 22, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Nice comeback after a 0-2. We had one play and the Pirates didn't disappoint.

On this soccer-free Saturday with the kids, I have more time to share some content. With smart money making moves on Friday night and throughout the weekend, the sharp report currently highlights 2 NBA games and 4 MLB games for Saturday.

Focusing on one of the NBA games, the Phoenix Suns have experienced a line shift from -5 to -7.5. With the current odds, it's unlikely that Leonard will play. If he does, though, the line would likely drop to around -3. The game's importance for the Suns increases if the Denver Nuggets win tonight, making it a must-win situation. If Denver sweeps Minnesota and the Suns lose, fatigue may become an issue for the Suns in Denver (altitude) due to their limited bench strength. Having been impacted by Leonard's news in the last game, betting on +7.5 and hoping for Leonard's confirmation might be a strategy to get back at the sportsbook.

Considering the potential line movement once Leonard's status is confirmed (if) it's challenging to fully commit to either side. The Clippers have performed well throughout the series when Phoenix's starting five isn't on the court. Players like Westbrook and Zubac could make a significant impact on defense, and it's hoped that Coach Ty Lue will implement a strategy that forces Phoenix to beat them in the half-court as much as possible. By the sharp money taking a position this early on the Suns, we can assume that they know Leonard is out. Either way, I'm not getting screwed again and staying away from this game.

The upcoming series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves promises to be a competitive event this weekend, with smart money favoring Houston in game 2. However, my analysis indicates no significant value in this particular matchup.

Astros pitcher Valdez boasts an impressive 1.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, which could explain the smart money's preference for Houston. The current Braves lineup has a .161 batting average against Valdez. On the other hand, Wright has had a less-than-ideal start to the season, with an ERA of just over 6 and a WHIP of 1.75. The current Astros lineup has a .190 batting average against Wright, and if he can return to his previous season's form, the game's outcome could resemble a coin toss, much like the current line suggests.

The Braves currently have a stronger offense compared to the Astros. Although Valdez is an exceptional left-handed pitcher, he faces a considerable challenge in silencing the Braves lineup. Atlanta has proven to be highly effective against left-handers this season. Coin toss for me. Are you trusting the smart money?


To recap: Suns -7.5, Houston -104

Good luck today

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