Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 11, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Welcome to another week of the Overnight Grid. We have the NBA playoffs this week and we already have moves in the first game in the Mavs series going from -3 to +1 with the Luka injury. No moves within Brooklyn and Minnesota tomorrow.

We only have 1 game in the NHL and there are no moves also.

It leaves us with the MLB and a 12 game slate. Surprisingly we only have a couple of moves overnight and early this morning. Let's take a look at a couple of games.

BOSTON / DETROIT OVER

Market makers tested the waters by opening the total at 9 with high juice -130 and we saw a reverse line movement overnight where the total moved to 9.5 with 70% of the handle on the under. My MLB model has this total projected at 9.21. Both these pitchers had ERA's of over 5 runs last year and WHIPs of over 1.30. We should expect something similar from both pitchers this year however Wacha should continue to regress while we should expect a little better from Manning in his second year. Wacha had an HR/9 of 1.66 last season but he was terrible in the second half of the season. Both offenses can put up runs and the over for the Red Sox are 21-8-1 in their last 30 games versus a right-handed pitcher. There is no value on the over but I would lean with the sharps here.

MILWAUKEE

The Brewers disappointed many in Chicago. We expected more from the pitching staff however they are known for a slow start and some struggles on the road. Tonight they face one of the worst teams in baseball with a pitcher that lost close to 10 games by 2 runs or more last season. Houser is no Burns but he was great from them last year and only lost 3 games when he started. Zimmerman show that he was better at home last year however gave up more HR than on the road. His ERA was 5.04 but he was worst than that with an xERA of 6.39 My MLB model has the Brewers at -157 and I agree with the sharps here. Look for Milwaukee's offense to put up runs tonight and I believe they should win easily.

Good luck today

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