Betting the Trends for July 28, 2022

2 years ago

Anthony P

Welcome to Betting the Trends.

Every day we will break down the top trends in each sport and provide a bet recommendation. Bet recommendations will be provided solely based on the top trends however the play needs to make sense and I will try and break that down also. Now, if you are a Sharpbets VIP or a Sharp app subscriber you can leverage all our other tools and make sharper betting decisions.

Statfox Foxsheet powers the trends

We only had 1 game yesterday and I posted it late, I hope you guys all missed it because the Giants have been a disaster and major disappointment in Arizona and have now lost 7 straight. The trends had no chance even with Webb on the mount! Pathetic. Well for tonight, trend favour the Cubs.

CHICAGO CUBS +125

As mentioned above, the Giants have been a disaster in the last week or so. Now they are back at home playing the somewhat hot Cubs winners of their last 6. Pitching has been great for them allowing only 2 runs per game in 5 of their last 6 wins and 3 runs in the other game. The model shows no value on the Cubs tonight however the trends are supporting them. Steele gets an extra day off and should continue his current hot run where he's allowed 1 run per game in 3 of his last 4 starts.

Bet against Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts.
Bet against Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
Bet on Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - off 2 straight home wins vs. division rivals against an opponent off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES +175

If you are a fan of big underdogs, this might be a game you will like. The trends strongly support the Pirates and they are playing the team I hate the most... the Phillies. I can never get a read of the Phillies, they are so inconsistent it drives me f'in crazy. My model shows no value in this game. F@CK THE PHILLIES. LFG PIRATES.

Bet on Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games.
Bet on Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL).
Bet against Road favorites with a money line of -175 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games.
Bet on All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) - team with a poor OBP (<=.310) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL).
Bet against All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (PHILADELPHIA) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.

SEATTLE MARINERS +123

We've covered the Mariners in the Overnight Grid since sharp money is definitely on them tonight. From +135 to +120, back up to +128 and back down to +120. Squares really like the Astro's. The trends are the Mariners are overwhelming tonight.

Bet against Home teams (HOUSTON) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
Bet against Any team (HOUSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
Bet on All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - team with a terrible SLG (<=.400) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season.
Bet on Road teams (SEATTLE) - off 2 straight home wins vs. division rivals against an opponent off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival.
Bet against Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

GOOD LUCK TODAY

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