Betting the Trends for July 25, 2022

Welcome to Betting the Trends.

Every day we will break down the top trends in each sport and provide a bet recommendation. Bet recommendations will be provided solely based on the top trends however the play needs to make sense and I will try and break that down also. Now, if you are a Sharpbets VIP or a Sharp app subscriber you can leverage all our other tools and make sharper betting decisions.

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The trends haven't been friendly to us the last 2 days. The plays went 0-3 again but a huge upset in Atlanta. The under 7 in Pittsburgh was a massif consensus play in the industry and a late rally in the bottom of the 9th from Pittsburgh pushed the total to go over. Seattle and Ray just didn't have enough to save face and got swept by the Astros.

Let's see what the trends have for us today.

MIAMI MARLINS +117

The market markers opened this line at -110 and sharp money came in on the Reds late last night pushing this line to -130. My MLB model is showing +8% EV on the Marlins and the trends also agree on the Marlins today. The Marlin's offense has been terrible and they really miss Chisholm. Green was set to start however it's Lodolo, hence the value on the Marlins. It's hard for me to support the Marlins based on their recent play however I do like Rogers on the road versus when he's home.

• Bet on All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%)

• Bet against Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CINCINNATI) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.

ARIZONA DBACKS +118

We have another underdog with heavy support from the trends. Arizona is coming in this game with little momentum winning 3 of their last 4 games. There is not much to get excited about when you are beating teams like Washington however their pitching has been more consistent in their last 4 games and that is a plus for them. The Giants got roughed up in LA but who hasn't right? The Giants have had their share of success versus LHP and own the 9th-best OPS but have been batting .202 last 5 games versus LHP. Gilbert did regress in his second year with an ERA of 5.34 versus 3.15 last year however his ERA drops to 1.46 at home and he has a WHIP of under 1. Arizona is one of my VIP picks tonight and I will also support the trends in this game.

• Bet against Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts.

• Bet on Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - team with a terrible SLG (<=.390) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose, lasts less than 5 innings per start.

• Bet against Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 4 straight games where they had 7 or fewer hits, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.

• Bet against Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO)  - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season.
  
  

GOOD LUCK TODAY

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