Betting the Trends for August 1, 2022

Anthony P

Welcome to Betting the Trends.

Every day we will break down the top trends in each sport and provide a bet recommendation. Bet recommendations will be provided solely based on the top trends however the play needs to make sense and I will try and break that down also. Now, if you are a Sharpbets VIP or a Sharp app subscriber you can leverage all our other tools and make sharper betting decisions.

Statfox Foxsheet powers the trends

On our last article on July 29th, the Yankees needed to score 8 runs in the bottom of the 8th to beat the Royals. They were trailing the game since the 5th inning, with Cole on the mount. Go figure! The Red +1.5 and the Angels ML didn't cash in. The trends are due to some heavy positive regression. Each trend posted is backed up with some heavy favorable records.

DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 8 +100

Trends heavily support an under when a team committed 4 or more errors in a game. It's very rare this happens in the MLB but it's a thing. I didn't watch the game, but FFS 4 errors in a game?? It's hard to support the under with the Twins, in the last 2 1/2 including the MLB break the under only happened 4 times. Skubal had back-to-back games where he allowed zero runs and he will face a twins game that is scoring on average 5 runs per game versus LHP in their last 5 games. The model has this game at 7.81. I'm not crazy about this under-8 play.

Bet Under - Any team (DETROIT) - after a game where they committed 4 or more fielding errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games.
(108-53 since 1997.) (67.1%, +48.7 units)

Bet Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they committed 4 or more fielding errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games.
(41-10 since 1997.) (80.4%, +29.8 units

Bet Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they committed 3 or more errors, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts


MIAMI MARLINS -111

So the Marlins opened at -135 favourite and the line moved down to -111. There is sharp money on both sides however it's obvious that the big money is on the hot Reds. The Reds are playing much better than the Marlins as of late, especially in hitting however both offense are pretty heavy when we look at the season numbers. The Marlins are 5-13 in the last 18 games versus the Reds but 14-6 last 20 at home. The Reds have an R/9 of 6.38 in their last 5 versus LHP. This will be Luzardo first game off the IL and we don't know how long the Marlins will keep him in. Greene's ERA of close to 6 speaks for itself but he only allowed 2 ERs against the same MArlins on his last start. The Reds got weaker by trading some players in the last week and I prefer the Marlins at home here and I support the trends here.

Bet on - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more. (83-45 since 1997.) (64.8%, +43.5 units)

Bet on - Any team (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%). (56-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +36.3 units.

Bet on  - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%). (41-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +26.5 units)

Bet on - Any team (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team.(99-52 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.6%, +46 units


GOOD LUCK TODAY

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