Which PrizePicks Props Are More Likely To Push And How Do We Use This Information?
You may know about the new Proptimizer tool that comes with your Sharp App subscription. This tool helps you make better PrizePicks selections. However, if you have been using it, there is a chance that you may not be using it correctly. Let me explain how the Proptimizer tool works. It takes the average of all the betting lines from various sportsbooks for a particular player or team's performance, removes the vig, and calculates the projected number based on those lines. Once we have the projected number, we can use it to figure out how often the PrizePicks prop will go over or under the posted number. This is possible because the sportsbooks' predictions are generally more accurate than other prediction models.
This chart tells you the minimum percentage of times you need to win for each type of PrizePicks game, based on the number of the game. The games with non-whole numbers are the best ones to play because there is no possibility for a tie. When a game ends in a tie, it's called a "push" and the game drops down a level. Here is a pic of PrizePicks' website that explains this in more detail.
When you play PrizePicks, if you choose a "Power" parlay and one of your picks ends in a tie, you will drop to the next lowest "Power" parlay. Similarly, if you choose a "Flex" parlay and one of your picks ends in a tie, you will drop to the next lowest "Flex" parlay. The only exception is if you have a "3 Flex" parlay and one leg ends in a tie. In that case, it will drop to a "2 Power" parlay.Looking back at the first picture I posted about the minimum win rates, you'll notice that the more picks you make, the lower the minimum win rate needs to be to win. But if you have a push and you drop down to a lower parlay level, it will be harder to win because the required minimum win rate is higher.When a prop has a low projected number on a whole number, it's more likely to end up in a tie than any other prop. For example, props with a posted number of 2 will tie about 25% of the time. So, if you make a parlay with 4 legs, you can expect at least 1 of them to end in a tie. If you don't want ties, then it's not as valuable to choose props with low whole number projections. Instead, it's better to choose non-whole number props or higher number props that have a lesser chance of ending up in a tie.We have an instance today where there are two props on the NHL Proptimizer that appear close in the expected win rate but are not that close when analyzed further.
When we calculate the "Odds to Win" for a prop, we don't consider the possibility of a tie. This is the same approach used when pricing anything that doesn't have a tie as an option. We call this a "2 way line", as opposed to a "3 way line". For instance, when betting on a soccer match, if you bet on the "3 way line", a tie is an option. So, you get a better price if you bet on one of the two sides to win. However, if you bet on a "2 way line", a tie is not an option, and the odds for both sides become shorter. This is because if the match ends in a tie, you won't lose anything. The same logic applies when dealing with props that have whole number projections. We treat them as if they are on a "2 way line" where a tie doesn't count. However, on PrizePicks, ties will drop you to a less advantageous level even though they don't cost you your parlay. That's why we need to figure out how much ties are really costing us. This is why I created the first chart in this article. It will help you figure out the win rate you need to hit to win, given the specific prop and parlay size you are playing.Let's take a look at the example of two NHL plays: Chytl o2 Shots On Goal and MacKinnon u5.5 Shots on Goal. Chytl o2 Shots On Goal has a 59.84% chance of hitting, but we need to consider the pushes that can happen. If we refer back to the first chart, we see that it's not worth playing this prop in anything other than a 5 or 6 Flex Parlay, because the win rate needed to break even on a prop of 2 is much higher.On the other hand, the MacKinnon u5.5 Shots on Goal prop cannot push, so the win rate shown is the rate it will actually go under the 5.5 number. Using the integer row of the first chart, we can see that this play is profitable across all parlay types offered by PrizePicks, yet it has a lower rate than the Chytl prop. By understanding how the Proptimizer tool works and how PrizePicks payouts are structured, we can make profitable decisions in the long term. Just follow the rules and use the Proptimizer tool.
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