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How To Use The Proptimizer Tool For PrizePicks

John Alesia
John Alesia

We are excited to announce the launch of our tool to beat PrizePicks, The Proptimizer!  


Background


The theory behind the tool is simple. The sportsbooks have the best predictive projections out of any projections you can create on your own.  That is not to say that sportsbooks can not be beaten.  Because the prop market is still fairly illiquid, there are prop plays we can take advantage of at the books.  Just see how well Statsational has done with his Top Props.  However, on the whole, books will be the most accurate predictor of betting outcomes. 


PrizePicks is a daily fantasy sports platform that allows users to pick a select number of players to create customized "player prop" entries. Users can predict individual players' performance in games across various professional sports leagues, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, and more. Users can then win cash prizes based on the accuracy of their picks. The platform is available in certain US states where daily fantasy sports are legal.

PrizePicks offer various parlays, from 2 legs to 6 legs.  Depending on the type of play you make will dictate the payout.  You can play a Flex play or a Power Play.  They do not add any Vig or Juice to the parlays.  THIS IS KEY!

Flex Play: A Flex Play parlay allows you to pick a combination of 3-6 player props from any sport or game. You win the parlay if all of your picks hit, but you can still win a partial payout if some of your picks hit.

Power Play: A Power Play parlay allows you to pick a combination of 2-4 player props. You win the parlay if all of your picks hit, but you can still win a partial payout if some of your picks hit.
The payouts for Power Plays are as follows.


The Payouts for Flex Plays are as follows.

Methodology


Based on these payouts, we can figure out precisely what our win rate needs to be for each type of parlay in order to break even.  Here are those breakeven percentages.


As you can see, our best long-term success will be playing 5 Flex and 6 Flex parlays because we need a win rate of 54.2% to break even as opposed to 57-59% on 2-4 leg parlays.
We will win less frequently on the 5 and 6 plays, which is likely why the breakeven is lower.  PP needs to entice play.

If the sportsbooks offer the most predictive projections and PrizePicks is offering props with no moneyline attached, then we should be able to find situations where there is better than a 54% chance a prop is a winner.

You now understand the theory behind the Proptimizer tool for PrizePicks.  We look at the average line for each prop at the sportsbooks.  Given that prop and juice attached to it, we can figure out approximately what the projection is for that prop.  We then take that projection and determine how often the PrizePicks number will go over or under ("more" or "less", as PrizePicks calls it).

To do this math yourself is complex and highly time-consuming.  However, we have you covered at the Sharp App.  Our new Proptimizer tool will show you the probability of a prop going over or under the PrizePicks number!  You can search for props that, over time, will be profitable!


Above is the web version of the tool.  It is straightforward to read.  Plays with a larger than 54% probability of winning are in green.  The plays that are close but not quite there are in yellow.  The red plays are the ones with the worst probability of winning.

You will also notice the SB (Sportbook) Proj(Projection) number.  That is the number we figured out based on the sportsbooks lines regarding where the market thinks the projection is.  (Insider tip: this is valuable for DFS Players as well)

The app version just launched today!  All Pro Subscribers have access as part of your subscription!

We are giving away a select few FREE trials for non-current Pro Subs. Email [email protected] with the Subject "Proptimizer Trial" to be considered. Be sure to include the email you used to signup for a free Sharp App membership.  

We would love to hear from you in our Discord.  Let us know what you like or dislike and any features you want to be added.  We are working on quite a few things for the Proptimizer tool.  Getting a Pro Membership now will save you from paying more in the future as the prize will increase to help cover the cost of building and maintaining the new tools.  But once you are locked into a price, you will never see an increase!


Best Of Luck!

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