Statsational PGA Model and Rocket Mortgage Bets

The Rocket Mortgage Classic returns to the Detroit Golf Club for the fourth consecutive season. Similar to last week, the winning score here has decreased over the first three years.

The course is a 7,370 yard Par-72. It ranks as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Hitting fairways should be easy as they are pretty wide. The only defense is the 5,150 square foot Bentgrass/Poa annua greens.

The field will be a bit stronger this week as opposed to last. The 3M had a 113 SOF on the OWGR with this week at 227.

July 27

As always, I will use the model to find the best value plays on the board. Last week the risk was .69 units and we were able to win the Grillo top 5 bet for a profit. This week we will be going even lighter. Not much jumps off the page as good value. If you want to add in a Cantlay To win bet for .1 unit risk I am not against it. Overall I have .21 units of risk. One win makes for a nice week.

According to my model, Cam Young is the 2nd best choice in the field. We are getting the 5th choice money. Fans may have had their first real look at Young for the Open at St. Andrews, where he finished 2nd to Cam Smith. He was also T2 at Wells Fargo and T2 at The Genesis. He has stepped up in some of the bigger tournaments of the year. His only flaw right now is SG: Approach the Green, where he ranks 101st. I am not sure that will be a problem for him this week.

We will take a shot on a former winner and course record holder Nate Lashley. Lashley ranks 13th in the field in my rankings. He obviously loves the course. It is a great price for a top 10. If you want to get riskier, play him to top 5 or win. Lashley struggles around the green. That may not be an issue here and could account for why he has had such success at this course.