PGA Zozo Championship Best Bets Plus Top 20 Model Picks For DFS

The host venue for this week's event is the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Let's take a closer look at what makes this golf course unique and the challenges it presents to the players.

Course Characteristics:

Accordia Golf Narashino is a classical-style golf course with a par of 70. From the longest tees, it stretches to 7,079 yards. What's interesting about this course is that it offers a good mix of shorter and longer holes. There are four par-4 holes that are under 405 yards, providing opportunities for birdies, but there are also four par-4 holes that are over 485 yards, demanding precision and power.

Previous Winners:

Notable golfers have claimed victory at this course. Tiger Woods won the inaugural edition in 2019 with an impressive 19-under score. Hideki Matsuyama, a local favorite, dominated the field in 2021, winning by five shots with a 15-under total. Last year, Keegan Bradley also triumphed with a 15-under score. While it may not be the easiest course, scoring well is possible. Weather conditions, especially rain, have influenced the difficulty of play in the past. Fortunately, the current forecast appears to be relatively dry, allowing the course to be set up as intended.

Course Features:

Off the tee, golfers encounter tree-lined fairways with some tricky doglegs to navigate. The strategic layout has been compared to tree-lined courses in various regions. On approach shots, golfers will find zoysiagrass in the fairways and rough, making for challenging lies. The course has two sets of greens for each hole, but only one is used during this event, offering a free drop if the wrong green is reached.

Putting Challenge:

The bentgrass putting surfaces are a highlight of this course. They are finely maintained, heavily sloped, and lightning-fast. Some have even compared them to Augusta National, known for its challenging greens. The combination of speedy greens and bentgrass surfaces adds a layer of complexity to the game.

Course Correlations:

In terms of course comparisons, Augusta National, TPC Scottsdale, Muirfield Village, TPC Sawgrass, and Waialae CC have similarities with Accordia Golf Narashino. The common factors are the speedy greens and bentgrass putting surfaces, which present a unique challenge to the players.

Conclusion:

The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club course offers a blend of challenges and opportunities, making it an exciting venue for professional golfers. As they navigate the tree-lined fairways and tackle the fast, sloping greens, the players will need both skill and strategy to succeed on this classical-style course.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 31%
Putting 17%
Driving Accuracy 14%
Around The Green 14%
Approach 24%

Since the model was updated before the PGA Championships, it has returned a 53.9% ROI.

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.


To Win

Here are the top 20 golfers from my model this week in order from best to worst.

1. Adam Scott
2. Cameron Davis
3. Callum Tarren
4. Rickie Fowler
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Cameron Champ
8. Sahuth Theegala
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Eric Cole
11. Min Woo Lee
12. Adam Svensson
13. Adam Schenk
14. Alex Noren
15. Nick Hardy
16. Garrick Higgo
17. Sam Ryder
18. Vincent Norman
19. JJ Spaun
20. Beau Hossler