PGA US Open LA Country Club North Futures Bets

The Los Angeles Country Club will be in the spotlight this week as it hosts the 123rd U.S. Open golf tournament. This club has a rich history and is as prestigious as any other top-notch golf course in the country.

George Thomas designed the North Course at LACC about a century ago. Although it has been modified since then, most recently by Gil Hanse, starting 15 years ago, the core structure of LACC has stood the test of time. Now, its stunning features will be showcased to a nationwide audience as it becomes the stage for the third major championship event of the year.

Many of the holes are half-par, which means they are kind of in between a par number. For example, you have the easy par-5 first hole, followed by the tough par-4 2nd hole. Then there's the short par-4 6th hole, followed by the long par-3 7th hole. This pattern continues throughout the course, making it like a roller coaster of emotions for the players, even though only the final score matters.

The concept of par is not that important. It's just a way to let players and fans know how everyone is doing in the tournament. But sometimes, it messes with the players' minds and adds unnecessary stress. They already have so much to think about during U.S. Opens, which might be even more intense this time.

Pro golfers often criticize the USGA and their golf course setup. However, this year there seems to be a change.

Rory McIlroy, ranked fourth in the world, believes that this U.S. Open will be one of the best in a while. He enjoys U.S. Opens on the West Coast, like Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, and Chambers Bay.

Jon Rahm, the second-ranked golfer, agrees that the golf course is excellent, but he finds the logistics challenging to understand.

Most PGA Tour tournaments have similar shot-making requirements: aim, shoot, and repeat. However, major courses, including the one hosting this event, offer a different kind of golf challenge. A prime example is the short par-3 15th hole, which Jeff Hall from the USGA setup team highlighted.

This hole stands out among the three difficult par 4s that come after it. Although the 15th hole is listed at 124 yards, during the 2017 Walker Cup Match, it was played at just 78 yards by players like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Will Zalatoris from the USA team.

Hall explained that even though it's not a full shot for the golfers at a similar yardage, they still need to consider factors like wind and firmness and make a precise shot. A player might have to hit an 80-yard shot away from the hole, which might sound strange nowadays. But it could be the right play in certain situations if they're not at the top of their game or if the circumstances demand it.

An 80-yard shot played away from the hole is just one example of the high-risk and reward nature of LACC. This indicates that we're in for an exciting major tournament showcasing the highest level of championship golf.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 28%
Putting 17%
Driving Accuracy 17%
Around The Green 14%
Approach 24%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.

To Win

Top 5

Here are the top selections from the model this week in order

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Tyrrell Hatton

3. Wyndham Clark

4. Tommy Fleetwood

5. Jon Rahm

6. Xander Schauffele

7. Rickie Fowler

8. Rory McIlroy

9. Patrick Cantlay

10. Adam Scott

11. Justin Rose

12. Viktor Hovland

13. Jordan Spieth

14. Jason Day

15. Mito Pereira (might be overvalued with a lack of PGA events)

16. Michael Kim

17. Corey Conners

18. Adam Schenk

19. Brooks Koepka (Way undervalued. Not enough rounds this year to be where he should be in the model. I was close to taking him to win)

20. Denny McCarthy