PGA Tour Championship 72 Hole Matchup Bets

Our PGA bets have been really successful recently, with wins for the past three weeks. Ever since we made some adjustments before the PGA Championship, the return on investment (ROI) has been an impressive 51.9%!

The TOUR Championship is the final event of the 2023 golf season. The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup Standings on the PGA TOUR will go to East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia, for this important tournament.

Only 30 golfers are left to compete in the last PGA TOUR event of 2023. The tournament will take place at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Let's take a look at the odds for the TOUR Championship.

Although there are fewer players in this event compared to others this year, we have more information about the East Lake Golf Club course. This will help us understand which players are likely to do well. While not everyone plays here regularly, we have a good idea of the skills needed to navigate this course.

East Lake Golf Club is a challenging course that tests many aspects of a golfer's skills. It rewards accurate tee shots and requires a good ability to recover if the green is missed. Doing well here depends on how players perform from tee to green. The course was designed by Donald Ross and is known for its tricky Bermuda greens, which are especially demanding for skilled putters.

Because of the small number of players and the unique scoring system, it's not the best situation for golf betting. This week I will play some matchup bets.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 24%
Putting 14%
Driving Accuracy 24%
Around The Green 14%
Approach 24%


These bets take into account the starting score of the golfers. Unlike a normal tournament, golfers will all have a starting score based on their FedEx points standings. Each book may have different matchup bets so I will give my favorites from each book.

Tournament H2H Matchups Void If Tie
Play each to win 0.5 units

Draftkings
Sam Burns +125 v Jordan Spieth
Corey Conners +100 v Sungjae Im
Mathew Fitzpatrick +125 v Xander Schauffele
Keegan Bradley +130 v Russell Henley
Adam Schenk -110 v Nick Taylor

Caesars
Russell Henly +148 v Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners -120 v Tony Finau
Max Homa +135 v Patrick Cantlay

Fanduel
Adam Schenk -120 V Nick Taylor

BetMGM
Lucas Glover -105 v Brian Harman
Corey Conners -118 v Tony Finau

The other legal books are only offering individual round bets. I like the full tournament bets more, especially with no cut. If you want to dabble in some R1 use some of the info I have below as far as where guys are ranking in the model.

Here are the top 20 golfers from my model this week in order from best to worst. I will add which way they are trending. Up/Down/Flat

1. Rory McIlroy (UP)
2. Scottie Scheffler (UP)
3. Viktor Hovland (UP)
4. Lucas Glover (UP)
5. Rickie Fowler (FLAT)
6. Patrick Cantlay (UP)
7. Tommy Fleetwood (UP)
8. Wyndham Clark (DOWN)
9. Jon Rahm (FLAT)
10. Keegan Bradley (FLAT)
11. Russell Henley (UP)
12. Max Homa (UP)
13. Corey Conners (UP)
14. Jordan Spieth (FLAT)
15. Collin Morikawa (UP)
16. Sam Burns (FLAT)
17. Tyrell Hatton (FLAT)
18. Matthew Fitzpatrick (FLAT)
19. Brian Harman (UP)
20. Xander Schauffele (UP)