PGA The Memorial

Muirfield Village, the venue for the upcoming Memorial Tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus, is a course that epitomizes the qualities required to host a major championship, particularly the US Open. Although The Players Championship often carries the distinction of golf's fifth major, Muirfield Village's demanding design positions it as a better test of golf.

Billy Horschel will be returning to defend the title he won in impressive fashion twelve months ago. His remarkable eagle putt on the 15th hole propelled him to a four-shot victory. Despite facing one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour, Horschel maintained his five-shot lead at the start of the day, finishing with an even-par 72.

To win the Memorial Tournament once again, Horschel will have to outperform a world-class field led by notable players like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and Xander Schauffele. The field boasts exceptional talent worthy of a major championship.

Muirfield Village rewards accurate driving, making it an ideal fit for Hovland, who demonstrated his potential to win a major at Oak Hill before a late double-bogey derailed his chances. While questions have been raised about his short game, Hovland's overall skills and dedication to improving his chipping make him a formidable competitor.

Scheffler, who recently regained the top spot in the world rankings from Rahm, consistently impresses with his performances on challenging courses. Like Hovland, he possesses a strong mental game and the ability to bounce back from adversity.

On the other hand, McIlroy's previous struggles at Muirfield Village can be attributed to his difficulties in finding fairways consistently, which has plagued him throughout the season. Despite leading the driving distance stats, McIlroy's low fairway accuracy may hinder his success at the tournament.

In terms of past winners, the Memorial Tournament has seen various champions in recent years, including David Lingmerth in 2015, William McGirt in 2016, Jason Dufner in 2017, Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Patrick Cantlay in 2019 and 2021.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 21%
Putting 14%
Driving Accuracy 24%
Around The Green 17%
Approach 24%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week.

While Scheffler and Rahm are the clear favorites, we can not pay the price they are asking for either of them. As mentioned earlier, Hovland should fare well here, but his current odds of +2000 are not enough for me to pull the trigger.

TO WIN

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