PGA The Master Statsational Futures Bets and Player Analysis

Over nine months have passed since Cameron Smith's stunning victory over Rory McIlroy at St. Andrews, which earned him the highly-prized claret jug. Despite a tumultuous offseason, with LIV Golf and PGA TOUR embroiled in controversy, golf fans are eagerly looking forward to the next major championship that has the potential to make or break players' legacies.

As we return to Augusta National for the Masters, the excitement is palpable. With Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy emerging as clear favorites, bettors will face a challenging decision.

This year's tournament presents an additional interesting element in the form of course changes. The Azalea, a par-five 13th hole, has been extended by 35 yards, making it more difficult than in previous years, particularly after the arduous 10-12 stretch.

Augusta National now measures 7,510 yards and is a par-72 course with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course's primary defenses include the challenging contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, uneven terrain, and small landing areas that golfers must hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Stats I am looking for at Augusta

Driver Distance

Since 2013 the average driving distance of the winners coming into the tournament was 299.9. The bombers play well here. With the added length of 13, the big hitters won't be able to cut corner and have a sand wedge in as we have seen in the past, but big hitters should still have a shot to get to the green in two.

SG Approach

Augusta is known as a second-shot course. You must put the ball in safe spots or else pay the price. Missing by a yard can be the difference between a birdie or bogey. We will focus on those hitting their irons the best coming into this week.

Experience

Augusta has never been a place golfers walk on for the first time and do well. Conversely, older players like Fred Couples have made a good show of it well past their prime. Experience and liking the course are huge factors here, more than any other course on tour. We will focus on golfers who have had some success here.

SG ATG

When you listen to guys who have won here, like Tiger Woods, talk about how they play this course, they tell you you must miss the right spots. Some of those spots will be off the green. Getting up and down on these fast undulating greens, often with awkward lies, will be crucial.


For my model, I will look at this season's stats. The Liv golfers throw a monkey wrench into the model, as we have not seen them on tour in a while.

Scottie Scheffler +700 All books

SG: APP 5th
SG ATG 6th
DR Distance 9th

The defending champion has proven he can win this tournament. His other two appearances yielded top-20 finishes. He should be the favorite, and the model agrees. At +700, we will have to pass and hope to find someone with a better price to cash in on.

Rory McIlroy +750 FD

SG App 9th
SG ATG 18th
DR Distance 2nd

Rory is looking to get that elusive 4th leg of the career grand slam. He has been playing well enough coming into this event to get it done. Many think he will. I am not sure he should be the 2nd choice, let alone the co-favorite, as he is at many books. I like him more in DFS than I do betting on him at this price.

Jon Rahm +950 FD

SG App 6th
SG ATG 9th
DR Distance 5th

The 3rd piece of the trio that is dominating the PGA tour right now. Rahm started 2023 on fire. He has a good history here but has yet to put on the green jacket. The stats say he should be the 2nd choice. We get a little value with him at +950. He is worth a shot to win 1 unit.

Jordan Spieth +1800 BetMgM

SG App 13th
SG ATG 10th
DR Distance 17th

Perhaps the best history at this course of any player in the field not named Tiger Woods. He did miss the cut last year after a T3 in the prior Masters. He is way too overpriced because of his course history. I can not play Jordan against this field, no matter the golf course, at just +1800.

Patrick Cantlay +1900 FD

SG App 22nd
SG ATG 35th
DR Distance 11th

Looking at the numbers this season, there is no chance I am going near Cantlay. Hard pass for me.

Justin Thomas +2100 FD

SG App 17th
SG ATG 1st
DR Distance 14th

I have been betting on Justin Thomas this season, and it has yet to pay off. 17th in SG Approach is ok, not great, but tops around the green mak up for it. He has plenty of distance to get it out there with the big boys. Good course history coming off a T8 last season. He knows the course well. Being good friends with Spieth and Tiger can't hurt. Risk .05 units to win 1 unit.

Tony Finau +2500 BetMGM

SG App 4th
SG ATG 38th
DR Distance 22nd

The SG Approach stands out for Finau. Distance will not be an issue at all. I worry about how he will do around and on the green. He has plenty of experience at Augusta with 3 top 10s in 5 tries. .04 units to win 1 unit.

Cameron Smith +2400 FD

SG App
SG ATG
DR Distance

Smith has had great success at Augusta, with 4 top-10 finishes in six starts. He has not played well on the Liv tour coming into this event. It is going to be tough to bet him to win. Intriguing DFS option, however.

Xander Schuaffele +2500 FD

SG App 7th
SG ATG 22nd
DR Distance 29th

The SG Approach numbers jump out at me. He has the game to win here. He has a runner-up finish in 2019 and a 3rd in 2021. Well worth a shot at this price. .04 units to win 1 unit.

Dustin Johnson +2500 FD

SG App
SG ATG
DR Distance

We are getting a good price on DJ because he is no longer a part of the PGA tour. If anyone can put the LIV chatter out of his mind and play golf, it's Johnson. In his last seven Masters, besides one missed cut, his worst finish was 13th. For .04 units to win 1, Dj must be in the mix.

Jason Day +2800 FD

SG App 33rd
SG ATG 3rd
DR Distance 30th

Day might be the comeback player of the year. His game looks closer to the form he was in when he was the number one player in the world than it has in a few years. His best finishes have been a few years back, but his form is much better now than it has been. He is a borderline play for me, but I will pass.

Collin Morikawa +2800 FD

SG App 3rd
SG ATG 28th
DR Distance 38th

We know Morikawa can handle the pressure of the Majors. He has two majors under his belt in a very young career. This will be just the 4th time he tees it up at Augusta. Last year he had his best finish in 5th place. The SG Approach numbers will make him a force in Majors, especially here. At +2800, I will take a shot on Morikawa to hold three legs of the career grand slam. 0.36 units to win 1.

Cameron Young +3000 BetMGM

SG App 14th
SG ATG 45th
DR Distance 1st

He has the pedigree and the stats to be a contender here. What he lacks is experience. In one trip here, he has a missed cut. He has also never won on the PGA tour. I will go against the model and pass on Young.

Max Homa +3200 FD

SG App 2nd
SG ATG 37th
DR Distance 32nd

The SG Approach jumps off the page, but lack of experience will get me off, Homa. He has been here three times and missed the cut in two of those. He has the game to get it done, but we should find better options.

Viktor Hovland +3700 FD

SG App 12th
SG ATG 56th
DR Distance 12th

I love everything about the game until he gets around the greens. Hovland can sometimes look like an amateur, and that is not what you need to win at Augusta. In three trips here, he has yet to miss the cut, but his best finish was 27th. Until the short game improves, we need to pass.

Sungjae Im +4100 FD

SG App 26th
SG ATG 5th
DR Distance 45th

He lacks much experience here but has an 8th and 2nd finish in just three starts. The model thinks he is a little better than the +4100 at FD. The other books are a little tighter on their price. .024 units to win 1.

Sam Burns +4100 FD

SG App 53rd
SG ATG 22nd
DR Distance 10th

Impossible to play Burns here with that SG Approach rank. He is 0 for 1 in cuts made at Augusta.

Will Zalatoris +4400

SG App 36th
SG ATG 43rd
DR Distance 8th

The stats are underwhelming, but he has shown up big here. In his two prior Masters, he has a 2nd and T6th place finish. Because of that, we are forced to pay more than we should for Zalatoris. He likes the course, but I am going to pass.

Hideki Matsuyama +4600

SG App 29th
SG ATG 8th
DR Distance 46th

The 2021 champion comes into this tournament with some neck issues. I think the neck should be ok, as he showed well last week at the Valero. I like his price for DFS, but for a bet, I will pass.

Corey Conners +5000 DK

SG App 15th
SG ATG 44th
DR Distance 41st

The model doesn't love him at this price, but he has a good history here. His last three starts were all top-10 finishes. He also comes off a win last week at the Valero. I don't mind passing on him for a bet to win, but at 7600 on DK, he is a must-play.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000 FD

SG App 49th
SG ATG 15th
DR Distance 15th

Nothing to see here. He is just not striking the ball well enough to win this week.

Tyrrell Hatton +6500 FD

SG App 10th
SG ATG 50th
DR Distance 23rd

Hatton played well in Florida with a T4 at Bay Hill, then a 2nd at the Players. He missed last week's cut at the Valero, to give us some concern. He has been brutal at Augusta. His best finish was T44 back in 2018. I will pass.

Min Woo Lee +6600 BetMGM

SG App 46th
SG ATG 52nd
DR Distance 13th

Lee had a good first appearance at Augusta last year with a T14. The numbers are not nearly good enough to put my money on him to win this week.

Shane Lowry +6500 FD

SG App 15th
SG ATG 39th
DR Distance 21st

Lowry shows well in the model. The 15th in SG Approach is not too shabby. We will be worried about his play around the greens all weekend. He has plenty of history here. After struggling for years he finally contended last year to finish T3. I wouldn't be upset if you wanted to take a shot on Lowry. I am close but leaning towards passing. Definitely a good DFS play at 7900.

Joaquin Niemann +7000 FD

SG App
SG ATG
DR Distance

Been bad on the LIV and has never been good here.

Patrick Reed +7500 FD

SG App
SG ATG
DR Distance

The 2018 champion obviously has the experience to win at Augusta. He has also been playing well on the LIV. More of a DFS play for me as his ownership will be low. I will pass on the win bet.

Tiger Woods +8500 FD

SG App
SG ATG
DR Distance

Nothing would be more exciting than seeing Tiger in contention on Sunday. I am doubtful that will happen. There is no course in the world he knows better than Augusta. I think he will make the cut, but not sure he can win.

Recap