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PGA The American Express Tournament Futures Bets

John Alesia
John Alesia

For the first few weeks of the PGA season, the Statsational golf bets will be free for all.

It was a great start to the golf season for us. Ben Taylor finished in the top 5, and Baddeley finished in the top 10. Interestingly, I happened to run into a former pro caddie while grabbing a bite to eat at a local club, and we ended up watching Baddeley on TV as he hit his next shot. I mentioned that I had placed a bet on him to finish in the top 10, and the caddie jokingly expressed his condolences.

For those new to betting on golf, it's important to know that when a golfer is tied for a final spot in the top 5, top 10, etc., it's considered a "dead heat." Different sportsbooks handle this differently, and they may cut the stakes or the odds.

For example, in this week's tournament, Taylor finished T4 with two other golfers, meaning six golfers finished in the top 5, with three of them occupying the final two spots. If a book cuts the odds, Taylor's odds would be reduced by 67%, making the bet +2345. If you bet $10, you would be paid $234.5 instead of $350.

In the same example, if a book cuts the stakes, they would reduce your bet to $6.70 on the winning bet, and you would lose $2.30. You would get paid $232.20 net. This difference may not be significant on longshot type bets, but if you're betting on a big favorite to finish in the top 5, like Justin Thomas at +200, it would make a bigger impact. For example, if JT finishes T3 with four others, and the book cuts odds, you would be paid 75% of the odds or +150, netting $150. If the book cuts stakes, your bet would be reduced to $75 at +200, and you would lose $25, netting $125.

The American Express

The 64th American Express tournament begins the West Coast Swing in the Coachella Valley, with a host of top players competing on Pete Dye's Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Ten of the world's top 20 players are among the 156 competitors.

This week's tournament at The American Express offers a great opportunity for players to get back on form, with three Par-72 resort courses measuring less than 7,200 yards from the tips. The course conditions, with minimal rough and pure greens, provide ideal conditions for players to focus on their game and make birdies.

For those who are in form, the lack of wind, elevation, and tricky greens makes this tournament a great opportunity to continue their good form. And for those who are currently in a slump, The American Express provides the perfect opportunity to get back on track.

After playing a round on each course, the top 65 and ties return to Pete Dye's Stadium Course for the final round. While the Stadium Course is relatively challenging, it can become more difficult when the wind is blowing. But with the forecast suggesting otherwise, we can expect to see scores in the mid-20s again this year.

The Bets

I will place bets to win 1 unit each, as I typically do. Occasionally, I may increase the amount, but I always aim "to win" and not "risk" a certain amount. I recommend watching my video on Bankroll Management in the Sharp Academy for more information on this.

The total risk for this week's bets is .64 units. Similar to last week, my goal is to win multiple bets. However, this week's field is more competitive, which may make it more difficult to cash in. I am not betting on the big favorite, Jon Rahm. Other strong players in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schaufelle, and Will Zalatoris.

My analysis suggests that Tony Finau gives us the best chance of winning. My model has him as the second-best choice behind Rahm this week. To win this tournament, it's important to make a lot of birdies, and Finau is ranked 4th in the field in terms of Birdie or Better percentage over his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 5th in Shots Gained Putting during that same period. With his strong driving ability, this course should suit him well.


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