PGA RSM Classic Best Bets Plus Top 20 Model Picks For DFS

The FedExCup Fall is ending this week at The RSM Classic. It's been a series of seven events where golfers fought for their playing status in 2024. Some big names also showed up for a few rounds, even though they've already secured their status.

What's important this week is the top 125 bubble. Golfers in this group on the FedExCup standings will get a PGA Tour card for 2024. They'll also get to play in all the big events. Another thing to watch is The Next 10, which is spots 51 to 60 in the standings. These golfers will be invited to the 2024 Genesis Invitational and the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which are the first two big events in 2024. Players might be aiming for other things too, like contracts, sponsor rewards, personal goals, or rankings. This is a big week—the final event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour. Lots at stake!

This week's tournament is happening at Sea Island Golf Club, spread across two courses. The Seaside Course hosts most of the action with three rounds, provided players make it through the 36-hole cutline. Additionally, there's one round played at the Plantation Course.

The Seaside Course is a par 70 covering 7,005 yards. It might seem long compared to last week's Bermuda course, but it's actually one of the shorter ones in the PGA Tour. It has nine par 4s under 430 yards, meaning lots of short shots with wedges and short irons. Golfers can sometimes skip using their drivers without falling behind too much. Water hazards come into play on about 13 holes.

Earlier in October, the bermudagrass was all over the course, but now there's some ryegrass popping up in certain areas due to overseeding. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are larger than the average Tour greens and can get pretty fast.

Even though it's labeled as a par 70, the PGA Tour's average par is closer to 69 for this course. Over the last five times this event happened, the field usually averaged -1.1 shots relative to par.

The Seaside Course doesn't see many eagles, around 0.26 per 72 holes, making it one of the tougher courses for that stat among regular PGA Tour stops. For more eagle action, attention shifts to the Plantation Course, where players average about 0.48 eagles per 72 holes, making it one of the easier courses for eagles on the Tour.

The Plantation Course is similar in yardage to the Seaside but has a par 72 layout, making it a bit shorter when adjusted for par. It features five par 4s under 385 yards, meaning even shorter hitters can have a good chance here.

Looking at past winners, it seems precision matters more than power. Champions like Tyler Duncan, Austin Cook, Ben Crane, and Heath Slocum all lean towards accuracy in their game. That doesn't mean power players can't win, but they need to balance their game well here.

When comparing other courses, ones like Sedgefield CC, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, PGA West, TPC River Highlands, and Quail Hollow show similar aspects regarding location, course length, scoring, and dealing with windy conditions.


The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 22%
Putting 15%
Driving Accuracy 22%
Around The Green 15%
Approach 26%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.


To Win

Top 5

Here are the top 20 golfers from my model this week in order from best to worst.

1. JT Poston
2. Russell Henley
3. Eric Cole
4. Davis Thompson
5. Ludvig Aberg
6. Sam Ryder
7. JJ Spaun
8. Luke List
9. Alex Smalley
10. Mark Hubbard
11. Callum Tarren
12. Doug Ghim
13. Stephan Jaeger
14. Alex Noren
15. Brendon Todd
16. Taylor Pendrith
17. Brian Harman
18. Kelly Kraft
19. Denny McCarthy
20. Martin Laird