PGA Rocket Mortgage Futures Bets

The area around the Detroit Golf Club was hit by storms from Sunday night to Monday morning. The golf course suffered significant damage to trees and grandstands. Fortunately, no one was injured, and the maintenance crews will have the grounds ready for the first round. The storm brought nearly an inch of rain, which is double the amount Detroit received in June. The rain may have slightly softened the course, but overall, it is in great condition for the championship.

There are 156 players competing for a total prize of $8.8 million, with $1.584 million going to the winner. Seven of the top 25 players (37 of the top 100) are participating in an attempt to prevent Tony Finau from defending his title. Finau was the favorite last year and won the Rocket Mortgage with a record score of 26 under par. In four rounds, he had 27 birdies and only one bogey. Similar exceptional scoring will be needed to have a chance of winning on Sunday.

Last week's winner, Keegan Bradley, is also playing in this tournament. He and the other players who competed in Connecticut had an outstanding performance at the Travelers Championship, making over 1,500 birdies collectively. It's impressive, even for the summertime on the PGA Tour. Winning the Rocket Mortgage requires a similar strategy. Players need to create as many birdie opportunities (putts of 15 feet or less) as possible. The average winning score at Detroit Golf Club over the past four years has been 23 under par.

The weather is expected to be hot and humid, resulting in longer ball flights. This aligns with one of the necessary skills to succeed in this tournament. Players here hit the ball an average of 13 yards farther off the tee compared to the Tour average. They sacrifice some accuracy for distance on this course designed by Donald. Just look at the past four winners: Tony Finau, Nate Lashley, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau. Each of them averages over 300 yards off the tee.

The Travelers Championship served as a good preview for the approach shots needed at the Rocket Mortgage. The players will rely on the same clubs for accuracy, as 63% of the approach shots occur between 100-175 yards from the hole. The average cutline to make it to the weekend is 3 under par, so players will need an aggressive game plan to secure a spot among the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. Detroit Golf Club has four par-5s, so players should focus on performing well on those holes. Additionally, there is some rain in the forecast for Thursday night, Saturday, and Sunday, which will make the greens more receptive to scoring.

The key to winning is having a high birdie-or-better percentage, making putting skills crucial. Power off the tee is important, but players must also excel with their wedge shots. The greens at Detroit Golf Club are on average 5,150 square feet, so it is essential to hit the ball close to the hole on approach shots from 175 yards and closer.

While making birdie putts is important, players realistically need to hit accurate shots to give themselves good birdie opportunities. The top players will create over 35 chances of making a birdie from 15 feet or less throughout the tournament. The winning formula is straightforward, and there are plenty of players who performed well with their putters last week to choose from. Skills around the green only matter if players are trying to save par after missing the green. Avoiding bogeys can keep them below par, but it won't give them a chance to win.


The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 26%
Putting 15%
Driving Accuracy 19%
Around The Green 15%
Approach 26%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.



To Win

Top 5

Top 10

Top 20

Top 20 Players In The Model This Week
1. Rickie Fowlers
2. Austin Eckroat
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Joseph Bramlett
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Byeong Hun An
7. Nate Lashley
8. Andrew Novak
9. Kevin Roy
10. Christian Bezuidenhout
11. Mark Hubbard
12. Alex Smalley
13. Sepp Straka
14. Tony Finau
15. Dylan Wu
16. Vincent Norman
17. Keegan Bradley
18. Kevin Yu
19. Adam Schenk
20. Tom Kim