PGA RBC Heritage Statsational Futures Bets and Player Analysis

I gave out Rahm as one of my picks last week and he came through big time at +950. We move to a much different course in Harbor Town for the RBC Heritage Classic. The field will be strong as most of the top players will be here.

Stats I am looking for The RBC

Driving Distance
Last week at Augusta, we looked at Driving Distance much more than we will this week. Driving Distance is always a key stat on the PGA Tour, but at Harbor Town, the distance off the tee is significant but not nearly as much as in Augusta.

Driving Accuracy
Accuracy will be more important this week than it was at Augusta. This is a Pete Dye design, and that means target golf. The tree-lined dog-legged fairways and heavy winds make hitting the ball in the right spot off the tee a key to scoring.

SG Approach
SG approach is always important, and this week is no exception. Dye designs can be punitive if you do not put the ball in the right spot on the greens. These are also some of the smallest greens on tour.

SG Putting
Not as important as some courses, SG Putting is still a stat we need to pay attention to this week.

SG ARG
With small greens and wind comes a lot of missed greens. It is important to be able to get up and down at Harbor Town.

The experience here is almost as important at Augusta. That tends to be the case with Pete Dye courses. You have to avoid the spots on the course that can lead to big numbers. Having some history here is extremely helpful.

The Golfers I am Betting with their rank in the field in each Stat

Collin Morikawa +1800 all books
DR Dist: 74
DA: 2
SG P: 87
SG: ARG 43
SG: APP 3

Not the longest hitter, but we do not need that here. SG App is elite, as is his accuracy off the tee. Good history here with a T7 in 2021. Risk .056 units to win 1 to win the tournament.

Tony Finau +2700 Fanduel
DR Dist: 44
DA: 24
SG P: 44
SG ARG: 70
SG APP: 4

I don't love the play here, but I am going to take a shot. Tony has been accurate off the tee and great on his approach. The issue resides when he misses greens which should happen here. At 2700 I will hope he can hit enough greens to limit the amount of up and downs he has to make. Risk .037 units to win 1 to win the tournament.

Max Homa +2900 Fanduel
DR Dist: 66
DA: 48
SG P: 6
SG ARG: 66
SG APP: 2

2nd best SG Approach in the field with great putting skills. He has only been here once, and that was in 2020 when he had a T41 performance. More experience would be nice, but at least he has seen the course for 4 rounds. He was disappointing last week, but he has a T6 at the Players and a 2nd at the Genesis over recent months. Risk .034 units to win 1 to win the tournament.

Tyrrell Hatton +4500 BetMGM
DR Dist: 38
DA: 4
SG P: 27
SG ARG: 105
SG APP: 11

You obviously have to worry about Hatton around the greens. His temper doesn't help when he isn't chipping well either. He has plenty of history here with a T3 back in 2020. The price is right to take a shot on him to win the tournament. Risk .022 units to win 1 to win.

Justin Rose +7000 Fanduel
DR Dist: 58
DA: 10
SG P: 35
SG ARG: 55
SG APP: 31

I could make the case to play Rose as a Top 5 or Top 10 but I like the low-risk high-reward play of "To Win" on Rose. He has not played in this tournament since 2020 when he was T14. Prior to that he last played in 2006 with a W/D in 2008. I like veterans on Dye courses. He is a good longshot play. Risk .014 units to win the tournament.

Wyndham Clark Top 5 +2000 DraftKings
DR Dist: 4
DA: 50
SG P: 76
SG ARG: 29
SG APP: 8

Clark has four appearances here with his best a T35 last year. This is a tough field so proceed with caution. His numbers are great. Can hit it long and his approach shots have been great this year. The field may be too much for him but risking .05 units to win 1 for a top 5 is worth a shot.

Matt Wallace +2800 Top 5 DraftKings
DR Dist: 16
DA: 102
SG P: 75
SG ARG: 9
SG APP: 17

Accuracy off the tee will be what we need to look at this week from Wallace. If he has a week where he can keep it in play he has enough game to get us a top 5. He has played decently here in the past with a T18 in 2021. Risk .036 units to win 1 on a top 5.

Sepp Straka +3000 Top 5 DraftKings
DR Dist: 68
DA: 30
SG P: 31
SG ARG: 112
SG APP: 10

Straka has a good history here with a T3 last year. The metrics say he should play well on this course. Draftkings is way off the rest of the market on his Top 5 price. Take advantage of that number. Risk .33 units to win 1 on a Top 5.