PGA Honda Classic Statsational Futures Bets

For the first few weeks of the PGA season, the Statsational golf bets will be free for all.

The italicized below is from a few weeks ago, but the information is worth reading if you missed it.

It was a great start to the golf season for us. Ben Taylor finished in the top 5, and Baddeley finished in the top 10. Interestingly, I happened to run into a former pro caddie while grabbing a bite to eat at a local club, and we ended up watching Baddeley on TV as he hit his next shot. I mentioned that I had placed a bet on him to finish in the top 10, and the caddie jokingly expressed his condolences.

For those new to betting on golf, it's important to know that when a golfer is tied for a final spot in the top 5, top 10, etc., it's considered a "dead heat." Different sportsbooks handle this differently, and they may cut the stakes or the odds.

For example, in this week's tournament, Taylor finished T4 with two other golfers, meaning six golfers finished in the top 5, with three of them occupying the final two spots. If a book cuts the odds, Taylor's odds would be reduced by 67%, making the bet +2345. If you bet $10, you would be paid $234.5 instead of $350.

In the same example, if a book cuts the stakes, they would reduce your bet to $6.70 on the winning bet, and you would lose $2.30. You would get paid $232.20 net. This difference may not be significant on longshot-type bets, but if you're betting on a big favorite to finish in the top 5, like Justin Thomas at +200, it would make a bigger impact. For example, if JT finishes T3 with four others, and the book cuts odds, you would be paid 75% of the odds or +150, netting $150. If the book cuts stakes, your bet would be reduced to $75 at +200, and you would lose $25, netting $125.

The PGA Honda Classic is played at the PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The tournament's rich history dates back to 1972, when it was first established.

The PGA Honda Classic has gone through several changes since its inception. The tournament was initially known as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at the Inverrary Golf and Country Club in Lauderhill, Florida. The tournament moved to Weston Hills Country Club in Weston, Florida in 1992 and was renamed the Honda Classic. In 2003, the tournament moved to its current location, the PGA National Golf Club, and has remained there ever since.

PGA National Golf Club is a 2,340-acre golf resort with five championship courses, including the famous Champion Course, home to the PGA Honda Classic. The Champion Course was designed by the legendary golfer Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1981. The course plays to a par 70 and measures 7,158 yards. It is known for its challenging holes, including the infamous "Bear Trap" which consists of three holes (15, 16, and 17) that are considered some of the toughest on the PGA Tour.

Having an Elevated event every week on TOUR is not feasible, and this reality sets in quite abruptly. Therefore, this week serves as a bye for top players with greater aspirations at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PLAYERS Championship. As we turn the page from the West Coast Swing to the Florida Swing, players will become accustomed to the Bermuda terrain in this stretch of the season. This will be the first of six consecutive events played on Bermuda greens.

In stark contrast to the last two weeks, the field at the Honda Classic is highlighted by OWGR No. 18 Sungjae Im. Sungjae won this event in 2020 and played some of his best golf on Bermuda greens during this stretch of the season. In addition to Sungjae, the field includes nine OWGR top-50 players, such as Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Aaron Wise, Alex Noren, Min Woo Lee, Chris Kirk, and JT Poston.

Straka claimed his first career PGA TOUR victory this time last year, chasing down Daniel Berger and Shane Lowry to hold onto a one-stroke lead in stormy conditions. He returns with greater expectations this time around, having since ascended to OWGR No. 30 with newfound Ryder Cup aspirations. Other past Honda Classic champions in this week's field include Sungjae Im, Padraig Harrington, Rory Sabbatini, Camilo Villegas, Luke Donald, and Matt Kuchar.

Because of the weak field, we are getting some long prices on some of the top players in the field. This is an opportunity to play many of them to win the event for a decent payout. Below are the plays with the best value according to my model.

Sungjae IM is the top choice in the model, but the price is not worth a bet. If you want to add him to your bets, you could make the case. For DFS purposes, he is a bit expensive at 10.7k, but he is the highest projected. Matt Kuchar is a much better value in the upper tier and is my second choice to win the event.

The top players I have that are low in my model, along with their rank this week, are
Shane Lowry 79
Billy Horschel 69
Min Woo Lee 124
Taylor Pendrith 64
Adam Svensson 53
Sepp Straka 80
Adrian Meronk 85

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