PGA Genesis Scottish Open Futures Bets

This year's Scottish Open is going to be huge! It's different from previous years because two big tours, the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, are working together for the first time. They invited the top 75 players from each tour, except for a few who decided to take a break, like LIV golfers and Jon Rahm.

The field is stacked with amazing players. Scottie Scheffler is the number one player in the world and he's leading the pack. We also have Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, and Wyndham Clark. These guys are all in the top 11 of the Official World Golf Ranking. It's crazy that out of the top 30 players in the world, 20 of them are playing in this tournament. It's gonna be intense!

On the DP World Tour side, we have Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Adrian Meronk, Lucas Herbert, Pablo Larrazabal, Victor Perez, Thriston Lawrence, Adrian Otaegui, Thorbjorn Olesen, and Jordan Smith. They're the top 10 players in this event based on their ranking in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Xander Schauffele won last year's Scottish Open and he's here to defend his title. Lee and Aaron Rai, who won in the past, are also playing.

This tournament is important because it's a chance for players to qualify for the Open Championship and earn points for the Ryder Cup. It's a big opportunity for golfers to impress their Ryder Cup captains and show what they're capable of. It's gonna be an exciting week!

The Renaissance Club is a cool golf course in Scotland that was built in 2008. It's a popular spot for golf tournaments like the Scottish Open, the Scottish Senior Open, and the Ladies Scottish Open. This year will be the fifth time they're hosting the Scottish Open, and it's gonna be a big one!

The Renaissance Club was designed by Tom Doak, who's known for his awesome work on other golf courses like Memorial Park and St. George's. His style focuses on making the greens super interesting and challenging, so players have to be really good at their short game. The greens at the Renaissance Club are different from what the players are used to because they're slower and made of fescue grass. It adds an element of surprise and makes things more exciting.

The golf course is located near Edinburgh, right by the North Sea. That means the weather can change a lot from day to day, just like at the Open Championship. When it's calm and sunny, the players can shoot really low scores, like when the winning score was -22 in 2019. But if it gets windy and rainy, it becomes way harder, and the scores go down. Last year, Xander Schauffele won with a score of -7 because it was really tough out there with strong winds.

It's hard to predict the weather this early in the week, but it's important to keep an eye on it, especially if it gives some players an advantage on the first two days of the tournament.

The Renaissance Club is a golf course that's different from the usual ones you see on the PGA TOUR. It's located in the birthplace of golf, so it has a unique style. The course is 7,237 yards long (6,669 meters for those who prefer the European measurements) and has a par of 70. What's interesting is that it has three par 5s, five par 3s, and ten par 4s. It's a nice mix!

The course is designed in a links style, which means the fairways are firmer. This encourages players to use the ground more and let the ball roll out after it lands, especially when it's windy. So, if you're good at playing in the wind and adjusting your shots depending on the weather, you'll have an advantage.

In the past years, shorter hitters like Tom Kim, Aaron Rai, and Ian Poulter have done well here because of the rollouts. But there are also some holes that longer hitters can take advantage of. There are three par 5s and one short par 4 that you can try to drive the ball onto the green. Plus, six of the par 4s are over 450 yards long. In the 2021 Scottish Open, the players in the playoff were all in the top 30 in Driving Distance. And in 2022, most of the top finishers were good at hitting the ball far.

In my analysis, we should be looking for a bomber to win this event.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 28%
Putting 19%
Driving Accuracy 15%
Around The Green 15%
Approach 263%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.



To Win

Here are the top 20 golfers from my model this week in order from best to worst.

Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Wyndham Clark
Rickie Fowler
Tyrell Hatton
Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Scott
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Min Woo Lee
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Matt Fitzpatrick
Ludvig Aberg
Sam Burns
Corey Conners
Michael Kim
Doug Ghim
Austin Eckroat