PGA Charles Schwab Challenge

The weather forecast for the upcoming tournament in the Dallas region is favorable compared to Rochester. We anticipate temperatures in the mid 80s with warm Texas winds blowing at a speed of 10-12 mph from Thursday through Sunday. There is a 40% chance of rain at the beginning of the round on Thursday, but it is expected to decrease, and the rest of the tournament should remain dry. The Dallas region has been experiencing dry conditions for a while, and we expect similar conditions as last year, characterized by an arid course that played firm and fast.

Continuing the trend from the previous week, the tournament will feature a par-70 scorecard. However, the similarities to Oak Hill end there. Colonial, the course for this tournament, is the fourth shortest course on the Tour but ranks as the ninth toughest. Succeeding at this venue, one of Ben Hogan's favorites, requires patience and a specific game plan. The course stretches only 7,209 yards, and designer Perry Maxwell offers players choices between taking aggressive lines or opting for safer positions. While some have found success with an aggressive style, the prevailing strategy over the past 80 years has been to exercise restraint off the tee and attack from the fairway.

More than 45% of the approach shots at Colonial come from the range of 125-175 yards, which typically corresponds to a gap wedge to an 8-iron for the players. To excel at this course, it is crucial to identify players who can create birdie opportunities with their scoring irons. Eleven holes present birdie chances over 15%, while nine holes have bogey rates over the same percentage. This blend of challenges and opportunities is why six out of the last ten winners have entered the tournament with odds under +3500 (35-1).

The Charles Schwab Challenge, sandwiched between a major championship and the next designated event, features a strong field of players. Twenty-four of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) will compete for a prize pool of $8.7 million. The first-place finisher will receive a check of $1.566 million, with the top 65 players and ties vying for this reward. The tournament offers an incredible assortment of approach players to choose from, with the driving and short game being less significant than putting and approach play.

Jordan Spieth has demonstrated remarkable success at Colonial, with eight top 10 finishes, three second-place finishes, and one victory in his ten starts. He is considered the modern king of this course. Sitting near the top of the leaderboard, Spieth is one of six players with odds under +2000. Scottie Scheffler holds the favorite status at +400. Although there are several top-tier betting options available for this non-designated event, it is worth exploring further down the board for potential value picks.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 19%
Putting 19%
Driving Accuracy 19%
Around The Green 19%
Approach 24%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week.

Scottie Scheffler is by far the favorite to win this event. He ranks the highest in the model as well. His value, however is not great at +400. We will look elsewhere for some value plays.

To Win