PGA Championship Oak Hill Country Club

The 105th PGA Championship, the second men's golf major of 2023, commences on Thursday (18 May) at Oak Hill. This marks Oak Hill's fourth time hosting the PGA Championship, with Jack Nicklaus (1980), Shaun Micheel (2003), and Jason Dufner (2013) emerging as previous victors on the challenging par-70 course in Rochester, New York.

Although the course underwent significant remodeling in 2019, precision off the tee remains crucial due to the presence of deep fairway bunkers and thick rough, ready to punish errant drives.

Last year, Justin Thomas defied a seven-shot deficit after 54 holes, ultimately triumphing in a playoff at Southern Hills in Tulsa. This victory secured his second PGA title and major achievement. Thomas returns to Oak Hill to defend his title, but Will Zalatoris, last year's runner-up, will be absent due to back surgery, sidelining him for the remainder of the season.

Following Jon Rahm's win at the Masters at Augusta, his second career major title, he reclaimed the top spot in the official golf world rankings (OWGR), surpassing Scottie Scheffler.

Rahm faced stiff competition from two seasoned major winners, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson, both of whom are affiliated with the Saudi-backed LIV Golf League.

The ongoing dispute between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf shows no signs of resolution, with Mickelson swiftly deleting a tweet where he criticized what he perceived as collusion between the PGA Tour and OWGR regarding major invites.

Rory McIlroy, who was the defending champion the last time the PGA Championship was held at Oak Hill, seeks to rebound from his missed cut at Augusta.

A notable absentee is four-time winner Tiger Woods, currently recovering from ankle surgery after withdrawing during the third round of the Masters.

Sergio Garcia, who famously dueled with Woods as a teenager during the 1999 PGA Championship, has also failed to qualify for his first major since the 1999 US Open. Since joining LIV Golf, the 2017 Masters champion has dropped to 189th in the world rankings.

The Bets
We will try to go back to back on the majors with a win at the PGA Championship. I am only betting to win as I do not see much value in the Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 markets.

The risk is fairly low as we play these for a "To Win" 1 unit amount. The risk is listed in the far right column.

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 26%
Putting 16%
Driving Accuracy 19%
Around The Green 13%
Approach 26%

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week.