PGA Butterfield Bermuda Championship Best Bets Plus Top 20 Model Picks For DFS

What makes the Butterfield Bermuda Championship an interesting event to bet on? To begin with, there are only two full-field PGA Tour events left in 2023. For golf fans and bettors who love the sport, the time between Thanksgiving and the start of the 2024 Tour season can feel like a long six-week gap. While we can expect lots of content about Tiger Woods in December, the truth is that unless you're really desperate to bet on the parent-child tournament, the golf season is almost over.

Another exciting aspect of the tournament in Bermuda is that any of the 132 golfers in the field can win. The Port Royal Golf Course, where the tournament is held, is 6,828 yards long and offers a level playing field. In the four previous editions of the tournament, only Russell Knox and Brian Gay have made the cut every time. Brian Gay, the winner in 2020, has consistently performed well, never finishing outside the top 12 in his four starts.

Putting is a crucial factor at Port Royal Golf Course this week, where the advantage of hitting long drives is not as important.

At first glance, finding another player like Brian Gay might seem challenging, but the truth is that his skills are easily recognizable, and the past four champions at this tournament followed a similar path to victory. When you look at specific statistics, a clear trend emerges. Putting is much more important than the distance of your drives. The previous champions all ranked outside the top 30 in driving distance the year they won, but they all ranked inside the top 10 for putting.

The Bermuda tournament doesn't provide ShotLink data, so we have to rely on the golf course design. Eight of the par-4 holes are less than 415 yards long. Add in three par-5s that most golfers can reach in a single shot, and players find themselves using a wedge to approach more than half of the holes. This is why 14 holes have a birdie rate of over 15%. If the wind doesn't disrupt play, we can expect low scores, with many golfers finishing 20 under par or better.

The weather looks favorable on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures in the mid-70s, a breeze around 10-12 mph, and no rain. However, the weekend brings different challenges, with the wind picking up to 20+ mph on Saturday and rain and wind expected on Sunday. If you think the three par-3 holes that are over 215 yards long are challenging in the wind, imagine trying to control a dozen wedge shots. Complicate the situation with significant elevation changes on 11 of the 18 holes.

The course also features 88 bunkers that define the landing areas and create additional obstacles. Another unique aspect of Port Royal is the layout of the holes. You won't play two consecutive holes facing the same direction, and the ever-changing wind conditions require constant decision-making.

Scoring well is essential on the 11 holes where hitting the fairway and getting close to the hole is crucial. The short par-4s and par-5s offer the best chances for low scores. Hitting those fairways will be a bit more challenging compared to last week's event in Cabo San Lucas. Tiger's el Cardonal had 97 acres of fairway grass, while Port Royal has only 21 acres. This is why the cutline has been at par or higher in half of the events here. Players who struggle to control their shots will find themselves missing the weekend action.

Our main criteria for picking the top performers require excellent recent form. We also consider a bit of course history and success on Bermuda grass. Playing well on this type of grass, not just for putting but also from the fairways, requires skill. Some players thrive on Bermuda grass, while others struggle. Our list of weekly winners typically includes players who perform well on this surface.

Lack of accuracy may penalize players in a different way. Bermuda has faced several storms in the last three months, so while the playing areas of the course will be in good condition, going off the fairways and green complexes could lead to unpredictable situations. T

The model breakdown for this course is as follows
Driving Distance 22%
Putting 19%
Driving Accuracy 19%
Around The Green 15%
Approach 26%

Since the model was updated before the PGA Championships, it has returned a 53.9% ROI.

The emphasis is on the last 24 rounds the golfer has played. These are the best values, not necessarily the best golfers this week. As always, I play these bets to win 1 unit. It limits your risk, which is what we want to do on longshot futures types of bets.


To Win

Here are the top 20 golfers from my model this week in order from best to worst.

1. Adam Scott
2. Luke List
3. Lucas Glover
4. Alex Smalley
5. Peter Kuest
6. Brendon Todd
7. Doug Ghim
8. Alex Noren
9. Taylor Pendrith
10. MJ Daffue
11. Mark Hubbard
12. Akshay Bhatia
13. CT Pan
14. Adam Long
15. Martin Laird
16. Kelly Kraft
17. Dylan Wu
18. Nick Hardy
19. Ben Griffin
20. Jason Dufner