PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Statsational Futures Bets

For the first few weeks of the PGA season, the Statsational golf bets will be free for all.

The italicized below is from a few weeks ago, but the information is worth reading if you missed it.

It was a great start to the golf season for us. Ben Taylor finished in the top 5, and Baddeley finished in the top 10. Interestingly, I happened to run into a former pro caddie while grabbing a bite to eat at a local club, and we ended up watching Baddeley on TV as he hit his next shot. I mentioned that I had placed a bet on him to finish in the top 10, and the caddie jokingly expressed his condolences.

For those new to betting on golf, it's important to know that when a golfer is tied for a final spot in the top 5, top 10, etc., it's considered a "dead heat." Different sportsbooks handle this differently, and they may cut the stakes or the odds.

For example, in this week's tournament, Taylor finished T4 with two other golfers, meaning six golfers finished in the top 5, with three of them occupying the final two spots. If a book cuts the odds, Taylor's odds would be reduced by 67%, making the bet +2345. If you bet $10, you would be paid $234.5 instead of $350.

In the same example, if a book cuts the stakes, they would reduce your bet to $6.70 on the winning bet, and you would lose $2.30. You would get paid $232.20 net. This difference may not be significant on longshot type bets, but if you're betting on a big favorite to finish in the top 5, like Justin Thomas at +200, it would make a bigger impact. For example, if JT finishes T3 with four others, and the book cuts odds, you would be paid 75% of the odds or +150, netting $150. If the book cuts stakes, your bet would be reduced to $75 at +200, and you would lose $25, netting $125.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will host a full field of PGA TOUR pros and pro-am partners, many of them celebrities, playing on iconic courses, including Pebble Beach Golf Links, the host course. The tournament will feature 156 pros, and the low 60 and ties will advance after 54 holes. Sunday will see the top pro-am teams compete. The tournament uses three courses: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. Pebble Beach is exposed to the California coast, and its tiny greens emphasize smart approach play and scrambling. Spyglass Hill is the toughest course in the tournament, and its fairways are protected from coastal winds. Monterey Peninsula Country Club is often the easiest course during the tournament, with the most generous fairways and largest greens.

The Bets

I have started the PGA season on fire. Another win last week, with Max Homa coming through on Sunday to win the Farmers.

This week is a bit unusual as I have no bets on anyone to win the tournament. We do have quite a few other futures bets, however. In all, I am risking 1.20 units for the event. We hope to cash at least 2 of these to turn a nice profit.

The players will be playing on poa annua greens at all three courses. They are known for their bumpy, inconsistent texture, which can make putting challenging. I like to find golfers who are comfortable with this particular surface. My model likes to look back 24 rounds. Of all the golfers in the field, Matt Kuchar is the best in SG Putting on Poa during this time frame. Some other notables that we are betting on are Kevin Kisner (2), Webb Simpson (4), and Mark Hubbard (5).

Hitting greens at Pebble Beach is difficult. The greens are some of the smallest on the tour. Being able to get it up and down will be a big factor this week. SG ATG is a stat I like in general but especially this week. Over their last 24 rounds, we have Matt Kuchar (12), Kevin Kisner (15), Nick Taylor (14), Kevin Streelman (10), Danny Willett (1), Brian Stuard (6), Jonathan Byrd (7), and Bill Haas (5).