Anthony P's NHL Model October 12, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 12, 2022

We hit our first NHL bet last night with the Rangers. The model liked them and so did I. I also disagreed with the under which the model was recommending in Los Angeles. The model looked good up till the 3rd.

The model likes 5 games tonight and I would with a couple of them however we need to be careful. We know the Habs will suck again this year and there is no reason to take the value on them. Goaltending is a headache for me in terms of being able to build an accurate team rating for the Leafs.

I agree with the over 6.5 in Montreal.

I also agree with the Hurricane's value. It's rare we will see a -247 favorite carry value but my model agrees. The Canes need to worry about shutting down that CBJ1 line and the rest is history. The Blue Jackets had the 5th worst GA/G last year and the 3rd worst on the road allowing 3.85 GA/G.

The Bruins are the Bruins and it's rare you see them have a bad game. Marchand, McAvoy, and Grzelcyk are all out. Bergeron didn't practice yesterday and Hall is questionable with an upper-body injury. I really like Washington today and I would fade the value on Boston.

Seattle and Anaheim got better during the off-season but not sure it will solve the issues the Kraken had on the road last season. Seattle, Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Montreal all had 11 wins last year on the road and they were the worst. The Ducks are not a powerhouse but the offense gets a bump since Seattle allowed close to 3.5 GA/G. Seattle's lines are much more balanced now with Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand. Eberle is playing on the 3rd line gives you an idea of the depth they now have. The offseason additions should give them a boost from being the 5th worst team in terms GF/G and the second worst puck possession team with a CF% of 44.55%

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