Anthony P's NHL Model May 23, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAY 23, 2023

It's always a bitter pill to swallow when a team suffers consecutive overtime defeats on the road. The sting is even sharper when the loss materializes within the first couple of minutes of the overtime period.

Now, with home advantage, the Stars are stepping onto familiar ice for the game. The betting line seems to favor them slightly more than expected, sitting at -145 while the prediction model forecasts them closer to -127. The previous game left the Stars reeling, especially after maintaining the upper hand for a large chunk of the match and restricting the Golden Knights to a mere 10 shots in the first two periods.

Hill demonstrated his mettle once more in Game 2, halting 59 out of the 64 shots flung his way in this series, reflecting a commendable .922 save percentage. He's proving to be a resilient goalie who may bend under pressure but never breaks. Despite conceding at least 2 goals in each of his last 5 starts, his stats still impress - with 4 wins, a 2.28 goals against average, and .930 SV% over 5 starts and 7 overall games in the playoffs.

Oettinger, in Game 2, saved 21 out of 24 shots, bringing his total to 7 goals conceded on 54 shots in the series, reflecting a .870 SV%. Yet, he's displayed some consistency at home, having limited the opposing team to two goals or fewer in the last three home playoff games.

After enduring the pain of two successive OT losses, I expect Dallas to leave it all on the ice for their home fans. History has shown us these teams thrive in nail-biting scenarios - 3 of their last 4 regular-season games resulted in a shootout, while Games 1 and 2 of this series both required an overtime period.

The Stars take game 3 but I don't want to pay more than -130.

Good luck today!

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